Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants.

ABSTRACT: As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether and when the world can reach herd immunity and return to normal life and a strategy for accelerating vaccination programmes constitute major concerns. We employed Metropolis-Hastings sampling and an epidemic model to design experiments based on the current vaccinations administered and a more equitable vaccine allocation scenario. The results show that most high-income countries can reach herd immunity in less than 1 year, whereas low-income countries should reach this state after more than 3 years. With a more equitable vaccine allocation strategy, global herd immunity can be reached in 2021. However, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants means that an additional 83 days will be needed to reach global herd immunity and that the number of cumulativ

SUBMITTER: Liu F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9058660 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature