Timely epidemic monitoring in the presence of reporting delays: anticipating the COVID-19 surge in New York City, September 2020.

ABSTRACT:

Background

During a fast-moving epidemic, timely monitoring of case counts and other key indicators of disease spread is critical to an effective public policy response.

Methods

We describe a nonparametric statistical method, originally applied to the reporting of AIDS cases in the 1980s, to estimate the distribution of reporting delays of confirmed COVID-19 cases in New York City during the late summer and early fall of 2020.

Results

During August 15-September 26, the estimated mean delay in reporting was 3.3 days, with 87% of cases reported by 5 days from diagnosis. Relying upon the estimated reporting-delay distribution, we projected COVID-19 incidence during the most recent 3 weeks as if each case had instead been reported on the same day that the underlying diagn

SUBMITTER: Harris JE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9058738 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature