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Connectedness of energy markets around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT: This paper studies the connectedness among energy equity indices of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries around the world. For each country, we construct time-varying measures of how much shocks this country transmits to other countries and how much shocks this country receives from other countries. We analyze the network of countries and find that, on average, oil-exporting countries are mainly transmitting shocks, and oil-importing countries are mainly receiving shocks. Furthermore, we use panel data regressions to evaluate whether the connectedness among countries is influenced by economic sentiment, uncertainty, and the global COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the connectedness among countries increases significantly in periods of uncertainty, low economic sentiment, and COVID-19 problems. This implies that diversification benefits across countries are severely reduced exactly during crises, that is, during the times when diversification benefits are most important.

SUBMITTER: Akyildirim E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9059158 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Connectedness of energy markets around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Akyildirim Erdinc E Cepni Oguzhan O Molnár Peter P Uddin Gazi Salah GS

Energy economics 20220304

This paper studies the connectedness among energy equity indices of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries around the world. For each country, we construct time-varying measures of how much shocks this country transmits to other countries and how much shocks this country receives from other countries. We analyze the network of countries and find that, on average, oil-exporting countries are mainly transmitting shocks, and oil-importing countries are mainly receiving shocks. Furthermore, we us ...[more]

PMID: 35529585

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Project description:BackgroundWe investigated impacts of COVID-19 on cardiac rehabilitation (CR) delivery around the globe, including virtual delivery, as well as effects on providers and patients.MethodsIn this cross-sectional study, a piloted survey was administered to CR programs globally via REDCap from April to June 2020. The 50 members of the International Council of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (ICCPR) and personal contacts facilitated program identification.ResultsOverall, 1062 (18.3% program response rate) responses were received from 70/111 (63.1% country response rate) countries in the world with existent CR programs. Of these, 367 (49.1%) programs reported they had stopped CR delivery, and 203 (27.1%) stopped temporarily (mean = 8.3 ± 2.8 weeks). Alternative models were delivered in 322 (39.7%) programs, primarily through low-tech modes (n = 226,19.3%). Furthermore, 353 (30.2%) respondents were re-deployed, and 276 (37.3%) felt the need to work due to fear of losing their job, despite the perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 (mean = 30.0% ± 27.4/100). Also, 266 (22.5%) reported anxiety, 241(20.4%) were concerned about exposing their family, 113 (9.7%) reported increased workload to transition to remote delivery, and 105 (9.0%) were juggling caregiving responsibilities during business hours. Patients were often contacting staff regarding grocery shopping for heart-healthy foods (n = 333, 28.4%), how to use technology to interact with the program (n = 329, 27.9%), having to stop their exercise because they have no place to exercise (n = 303, 25.7%), and their risk of death from COVID-19 due to pre-existing cardiovascular disease (n = 249, 21.2%). Respondents perceived staff (n = 488, 41.3%) and patient (n = 453, 38.6%) personal protective equipment, as well as COVID-19 screening (n = 414, 35.2%), and testing (n = 411, 35.0%) as paramount to in-person service resumption.ConclusionGiven the estimated number of CR programs globally, these results suggest approximately 4400 CR programs globally have ceased or temporarily stopped service delivery. Those that remain open are implementing new technologies to ensure their patients receive CR safely, despite the challenges.Highlights- COVID-19 has impacted cardiac rehabilitation (CR) delivery around the globe.- In this cross-sectional study, a survey was completed by 1062 (18.3%) CR programs from 70 (63.1%) countries.- The pandemic has resulted in at least temporary cessation of ~75% of CR programs, with others ceasing initiation of new patients, reducing components delivered, and/or changing of mode delivery with little opportunity for planning and training.- There is also significant psychosocial and economic impact on CR providers.- Alternative CR model (e.g., home-based, virtual) reimbursement advocacy is needed, to ensure safe, accessible secondary prevention delivery.

Project description:We have analysed the COVID-19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between 22 January and 28 March 2020. We found that some countries (such as the USA, the UK and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. Regardless of the best fitting law, many countries can be shown to follow a common trajectory that is similar to Italy (the epicentre at the time of analysis), but with varying degrees of delay. We found that countries with 'younger' epidemics, i.e. countries where the epidemic started more recently, tend to exhibit more exponential like behaviour, while countries that were closer behind Italy tend to follow a power law growth. We hypothesize that there is a universal growth pattern of this infection that starts off as exponential and subsequently becomes more power law like. Although it cannot be excluded that this growth pattern is a consequence of social distancing measures, an alternative explanation is that it is an intrinsic epidemic growth law, dictated by a spatially distributed community structure, where the growth in individual highly mixed communities is exponential but the longer term, local geographical spread (in the absence of global mixing) results in a power law. This is supported by computer simulations of a metapopulation model that gives rise to predictions about the growth dynamics that are consistent with correlations found in the epidemiological data. Therefore, seeing a deviation from straight exponential growth may be a natural progression of the epidemic in each country. On the practical side, this indicates that (i) even in the absence of strict social distancing interventions, exponential growth is not an accurate predictor of longer term infection spread, and (ii) a deviation from exponential spread and a reduction of estimated doubling times do not necessarily indicate successful interventions, which are instead indicated by a transition to a reduced power or by a deviation from power law behaviour.

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Connectedness of energy markets around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Connectedness of energy markets around the world during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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