Dataset Information

Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning Prediction of Disease Outcomes for COVID-19 and Pneumonia Patients.

ABSTRACT: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world and impacted many people's lives. The characteristics of COVID-19 and other types of pneumonia have both similarities and differences, which confused doctors initially to separate and understand them. Here we presented a retrospective analysis for both COVID-19 and other types of pneumonia by combining the COVID-19 clinical data, eICU and MIMIC-III databases. Machine learning models, including logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost and deep learning neural networks, were developed to predict the severity of COVID-19 infections as well as the mortality of pneumonia patients in intensive care units (ICU). Statistical analysis and feature interpretation, including the analysis of two-level attention mechanisms on both temporal and non-temporal features, were utilized to understand the associations between different clinical variables and disease outcomes. For the COVID-19 data, the XGBoost model obtained the best performance on the test set (AUROC = 1.000 and AUPRC = 0.833). On the MIMIC-III and eICU pneumonia datasets, our deep learning model (Bi-LSTM_Attn) was able to identify clinical variables associated with death of pneumonia patients (AUROC = 0.924 and AUPRC = 0.802 for 24-hour observation window and 12-hour prediction window). The results highlighted clinical indicators, such as the lymphocyte counts, that may help the doctors to predict the disease progression and outcomes for both COVID-19 and other types of pneumonia.

SUBMITTER: Zhao Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9063041 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning Prediction of Disease Outcomes for COVID-19 and Pneumonia Patients.

Zhao Yu Y Zhang Rusen R Zhong Yi Y Wang Jingjing J Weng Zuquan Z Luo Heng H Chen Cunrong C

Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology 20220419

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world and impacted many people's lives. The characteristics of COVID-19 and other types of pneumonia have both similarities and differences, which confused doctors initially to separate and understand them. Here we presented a retrospective analysis for both COVID-19 and other types of pneumonia by combining the COVID-19 clinical data, eICU and MIMIC-III databases. Machine learning models, including logistic regression, random fores ...[more]

PMID: 35521216

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Project description:BackgroundIdentification of distinct clinical phenotypes of diseases can guide personalized treatment. This study aimed to classify hospitalized COVID-19 pneumonia subgroups using an unsupervised machine learning approach.MethodsWe included hospitalized COVID-19 pneumonia patients from July to September 2021. K-means clustering, an unsupervised machine learning method, was performed to identify clinical phenotypes based on clinical and laboratory variables collected within 24 hours of admission. Variables were normalized before clustering to ensure equal contribution to the analysis. The optimal number of clusters was determined using the elbow method and Silhouette scores. Cox proportional hazard models were used to compare the risk of intubation and 90-day mortality across the identified clusters.ResultsThree clinically distinct clusters were identified among 538 hospitalized COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Cluster 1 (N = 27) consisted predominantly of males and showed significantly elevated serum liver enzymes and LDH levels. Cluster 2 (N = 370) was characterized by lower chest x-ray scores and higher serum albumin levels. Cluster 3 (N = 141) was characterized by older age, diabetes mellitus, higher chest x-ray scores, more severe vital signs, higher creatinine levels, lower hemoglobin levels, lower lymphocyte counts, higher C-reactive protein, higher D-dimer, and higher LDH levels. When compared to cluster 2, cluster 3 was significantly associated with increased risk of 90-day mortality (HR, 6.24; 95% CI, 2.42-16.09) and intubation (HR, 5.26; 95% CI 2.37-11.72). In contrast, cluster 1 had a 100% survival rate with a non-significant increase in intubation risk compared to cluster 2 (HR, 1.40, 95% CI, 0.18-11.04).ConclusionsWe identified three distinct clinical phenotypes of COVID-19 pneumonia patients, with cluster 3 associated with an increased risk of respiratory failure and mortality. These findings may guide tailored clinical management strategies.

Project description:BACKGROUNDDespite guidelines promoting the prevention and aggressive treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), the importance of VAP as a driver of outcomes in mechanically ventilated patients, including patients with severe COVID-19, remains unclear. We aimed to determine the contribution of unsuccessful treatment of VAP to mortality for patients with severe pneumonia.METHODSWe performed a single-center, prospective cohort study of 585 mechanically ventilated patients with severe pneumonia and respiratory failure, 190 of whom had COVID-19, who underwent at least 1 bronchoalveolar lavage. A panel of intensive care unit (ICU) physicians adjudicated the pneumonia episodes and endpoints on the basis of clinical and microbiological data. Given the relatively long ICU length of stay (LOS) among patients with COVID-19, we developed a machine-learning approach called CarpeDiem, which grouped similar ICU patient-days into clinical states based on electronic health record data.RESULTSCarpeDiem revealed that the long ICU LOS among patients with COVID-19 was attributable to long stays in clinical states characterized primarily by respiratory failure. While VAP was not associated with mortality overall, the mortality rate was higher for patients with 1 episode of unsuccessfully treated VAP compared with those with successfully treated VAP (76.4% versus 17.6%, P < 0.001). For all patients, including those with COVID-19, CarpeDiem demonstrated that unresolving VAP was associated with a transitions to clinical states associated with higher mortality.CONCLUSIONSUnsuccessful treatment of VAP is associated with higher mortality. The relatively long LOS for patients with COVID-19 was primarily due to prolonged respiratory failure, placing them at higher risk of VAP.FUNDINGNational Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), NIH grant U19AI135964; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), NIH grants R01HL147575, R01HL149883, R01HL153122, R01HL153312, R01HL154686, R01HL158139, P01HL071643, and P01HL154998; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), NIH training grants T32HL076139 and F32HL162377; National Institute on Aging (NIA), NIH grants K99AG068544, R21AG075423, and P01AG049665; National Library of Medicine (NLM), NIH grant R01LM013337; National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), NIH grant U01TR003528; Veterans Affairs grant I01CX001777; Chicago Biomedical Consortium grant; Northwestern University Dixon Translational Science Award; Simpson Querrey Lung Institute for Translational Science (SQLIFTS); Canning Thoracic Institute of Northwestern Medicine.

Project description:BackgroundTo develop machine learning classifiers at admission for predicting which patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who will progress to critical illness.MethodsA total of 158 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to three designated hospitals between December 31, 2019 and March 31, 2020 were retrospectively collected. 27 clinical and laboratory variables of COVID-19 patients were collected from the medical records. A total of 201 quantitative CT features of COVID-19 pneumonia were extracted by using an artificial intelligence software. The critically ill cases were defined according to the COVID-19 guidelines. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression was used to select the predictors of critical illness from clinical and radiological features, respectively. Accordingly, we developed clinical and radiological models using the following machine learning classifiers, including naive bayes (NB), linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), kernel support vector machine (k-SVM), and back propagation neural networks (BPNN). The combined model incorporating the selected clinical and radiological factors was also developed using the eight above-mentioned classifiers. The predictive efficiency of the models is validated using a 5-fold cross-validation method. The performance of the models was compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).ResultsThe mean age of all patients was 58.9±13.9 years and 89 (56.3%) were males. 35 (22.2%) patients deteriorated to critical illness. After LASSO analysis, four clinical features including lymphocyte percentage, lactic dehydrogenase, neutrophil count, and D-dimer and four quantitative CT features were selected. The XGBoost-based clinical model yielded the highest AUC of 0.960 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.913-1.000)]. The XGBoost-based radiological model achieved an AUC of 0.890 (95% CI: 0.757-1.000). However, the predictive efficacy of XGBoost-based combined model was very close to that of the XGBoost-based clinical model, with an AUC of 0.955 (95% CI: 0.906-1.000).ConclusionsA XGBoost-based based clinical model on admission might be used as an effective tool to identify patients at high risk of critical illness.

Dataset Information

Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning Prediction of Disease Outcomes for COVID-19 and Pneumonia Patients.

Publications

Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning Prediction of Disease Outcomes for COVID-19 and Pneumonia Patients.

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