The source of individual heterogeneity shapes infectious disease outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: There is known heterogeneity between individuals in infectious disease transmission patterns. The source of this heterogeneity is thought to affect epidemiological dynamics but studies tend not to control for the overall heterogeneity in the number of secondary cases caused by an infection. To explore the role of individual variation in infection duration and transmission rate in parasite emergence and spread, while controlling for this potential bias, we simulate stochastic outbreaks with and without parasite evolution. As expected, heterogeneity in the number of secondary cases decreases the probability of outbreak emergence. Furthermore, for epidemics that do emerge, assuming more realistic infection duration distributions leads to faster outbreaks and higher epidemic peaks. When parasi

SUBMITTER: Elie B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9065969 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature