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A comprehensive model to predict severe acute graft-versus-host disease in acute leukemia patients after haploidentical hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.


ABSTRACT:

Background

Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) remains the major cause of early mortality after haploidentical related donor (HID) hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We aimed to establish a comprehensive model which could predict severe aGVHD after HID HSCT.

Methods

Consecutive 470 acute leukemia patients receiving HID HSCT according to the protocol registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03756675) were enrolled, 70% of them (n = 335) were randomly selected as training cohort and the remains 30% (n = 135) were used as validation cohort.

Results

The equation was as follows: Probability (grade III-IV aGVHD) = [Formula: see text], where Y = -0.0288 × (age) + 0.7965 × (gender) + 0.8371 × (CD3 + /CD14 + cells ratio in graft) + 0.5829 × (donor/recipient relation) - 0.0089 × (CD8 + cell counts in graft) - 2.9046. The threshold of probability was 0.057392 which helped separate patients into high- and low-risk groups. The 100-day cumulative incidence of grade III-IV aGVHD in the low- and high-risk groups was 4.1% (95% CI 1.9-6.3%) versus 12.8% (95% CI 7.4-18.2%) (P = 0.001), 3.2% (95% CI 1.2-5.1%) versus 10.6% (95% CI 4.7-16.5%) (P = 0.006), and 6.1% (95% CI 1.3-10.9%) versus 19.4% (95% CI 6.3-32.5%) (P = 0.017), respectively, in total, training, and validation cohort. The rates of grade III-IV skin and gut aGVHD in high-risk group were both significantly higher than those of low-risk group. This model could also predict grade II-IV and grade I-IV aGVHD.

Conclusions

We established a model which could predict the development of severe aGVHD in HID HSCT recipients.

SUBMITTER: Shen MZ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9067003 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A comprehensive model to predict severe acute graft-versus-host disease in acute leukemia patients after haploidentical hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

Shen Meng-Zhu MZ   Hong Shen-Da SD   Lou Rui R   Chen Rui-Ze RZ   Zhang Xiao-Hui XH   Xu Lan-Ping LP   Wang Yu Y   Yan Chen-Hua CH   Chen Huan H   Chen Yu-Hong YH   Han Wei W   Wang Feng-Rong FR   Wang Jing-Zhi JZ   Liu Kai-Yan KY   Huang Xiao-Jun XJ   Mo Xiao-Dong XD  

Experimental hematology & oncology 20220503 1


<h4>Background</h4>Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) remains the major cause of early mortality after haploidentical related donor (HID) hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We aimed to establish a comprehensive model which could predict severe aGVHD after HID HSCT.<h4>Methods</h4>Consecutive 470 acute leukemia patients receiving HID HSCT according to the protocol registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03756675) were enrolled, 70% of them (n = 335) were randomly selected a  ...[more]

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