Updating age-specific contact structures to match evolving demography in a dynamic mathematical model of tuberculosis vaccination.

ABSTRACT: We investigated the effects of updating age-specific social contact matrices to match evolving demography on vaccine impact estimates. We used a dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis in India as a case study. We modelled four incremental methods to update contact matrices over time, where each method incorporated its predecessor: fixed contact matrix (M0), preserved contact reciprocity (M1), preserved contact assortativity (M2), and preserved average contacts per individual (M3). We updated the contact matrices of a deterministic compartmental model of tuberculosis transmission, calibrated to epidemiologic data between 2000 and 2019 derived from India. We additionally calibrated the M0, M2, and M3 models to the 2050 TB incidence rate projected by the calibrated M1 model. We stratified

SUBMITTER: Weerasuriya CK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9067655 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature