Dataset Information

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling.

ABSTRACT: The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, a resurgent COVID-19 wave in winter 2021/2022 might be witnessed. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. A projected study with an outlook of 6 months explores the interplay between the rate at which boosters are distributed and the extent to which testing practices are implemented, using a highly granular agent-based model tuned on a medium-sized US town. Theoretical projections indicate that the administration of boosters at the rate at which the vaccine is currently administered could yield a severe resurgence of the pandemic. Projections suggest that the peak levels of mid-spring 2021 in the vaccination rate may prevent such a scenario to occur, although exact agreement between observations and projections should not be expected due to the continuously evolving nature of the pandemic. This study highlights the importance of testing, especially to detect asymptomatic individuals in the near future, as the release of the booster reaches full speed.

SUBMITTER: Truszkowska A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9073999 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling.

Truszkowska Agnieszka A Zino Lorenzo L Butail Sachit S Caroppo Emanuele E Jiang Zhong-Ping ZP Rizzo Alessandro A Porfiri Maurizio M

Advanced theory and simulations 20220214 6

The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, a resurgent COVID-19 wave in winter 2021/2022 might be witnessed. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. A projected study with an outlook of 6 months explores the interplay between the rate ...[more]

PMID: 35540703

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Project description:The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated a considerable number of infections and associated morbidity and mortality across the world. Recovery from these infections, combined with the onset of large-scale vaccination, have led to rapidly-changing population-level immunological landscapes. In turn, these complexities have highlighted a number of important unknowns related to the breadth and strength of immunity following recovery or vaccination. Using simple mathematical models, we investigate the medium-term impacts of waning immunity against severe disease on immuno-epidemiological dynamics. We find that uncertainties in the duration of severity-blocking immunity (imparted by either infection or vaccination) can lead to a large range of medium-term population-level outcomes (i.e. infection characteristics and immune landscapes). Furthermore, we show that epidemiological dynamics are sensitive to the strength and duration of underlying host immune responses; this implies that determining infection levels from hospitalizations requires accurate estimates of these immune parameters. More durable vaccines both reduce these uncertainties and alleviate the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in pessimistic outcomes. However, heterogeneity in vaccine uptake drastically changes immune landscapes toward larger fractions of individuals with waned severity-blocking immunity. In particular, if hesitancy is substantial, more robust vaccines have almost no effects on population-level immuno-epidemiology, even if vaccination rates are compensatorily high among vaccine-adopters. This pessimistic scenario for vaccination heterogeneity arises because those few individuals that are vaccine-adopters are so readily re-vaccinated that the duration of vaccinal immunity has no appreciable consequences on their immune status. Furthermore, we find that this effect is heightened if vaccine-hesitants have increased transmissibility (e.g. due to riskier behavior). Overall, our results illustrate the necessity to characterize both transmission-blocking and severity-blocking immune time scales. Our findings also underline the importance of developing robust next-generation vaccines with equitable mass vaccine deployment.

Project description:BackgroundIn December 2020, Israel began a mass vaccination campaign against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) by administering the BNT162b2 vaccine, which led to a sharp curtailing of the outbreak. After a period with almost no cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, a resurgent Covid-19 outbreak began in mid-June 2021. Possible reasons for the resurgence were reduced vaccine effectiveness against the delta (B.1.617.2) variant and waning immunity. The extent of waning immunity of the vaccine against the delta variant in Israel is unclear.MethodsWe used data on confirmed infection and severe disease collected from an Israeli national database for the period of July 11 to 31, 2021, for all Israeli residents who had been fully vaccinated before June 2021. We used a Poisson regression model to compare rates of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe Covid-19 among persons vaccinated during different time periods, with stratification according to age group and with adjustment for possible confounding factors.ResultsAmong persons 60 years of age or older, the rate of infection in the July 11-31 period was higher among persons who became fully vaccinated in January 2021 (when they were first eligible) than among those fully vaccinated 2 months later, in March (rate ratio, 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3 to 2.0). Among persons 40 to 59 years of age, the rate ratio for infection among those fully vaccinated in February (when they were first eligible), as compared with 2 months later, in April, was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1). Among persons 16 to 39 years of age, the rate ratio for infection among those fully vaccinated in March (when they were first eligible), as compared with 2 months later, in May, was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0). The rate ratio for severe disease among persons fully vaccinated in the month when they were first eligible, as compared with those fully vaccinated in March, was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.9) among persons 60 years of age or older and 2.2 (95% CI, 0.6 to 7.7) among those 40 to 59 years of age; owing to small numbers, the rate ratio could not be calculated among persons 16 to 39 years of age.ConclusionsThese findings indicate that immunity against the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 waned in all age groups a few months after receipt of the second dose of vaccine.

Project description:To enhance the personal immunity to COVID-19, a third booster dose of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines program campaign was implemented in China. Our study endeavored to compare the dynamics of neutralizing antibodies generated by four distinct booster vaccines against three kinds of live SARS-CoV-2 virus (wild-type, Delta AY.23, and Omicron BA5.2). This cohort study involved 320 healthy individuals, who were randomly assigned to four groups, to receive boosters with inactivated vaccine (COVac and BIBP), the adenovirus type-5-vectored vaccine (Convidecia), and the recombinant protein-based vaccine (Zifivax), respectively, all the vaccines studied had the Wuhan variant as their parental variant. Participants were recruited from December 2021 to June 2022, with a follow-up period of 180 days. We evaluated humoral immune responses and their longevity by measuring the geometric mean titers (GMTs) of neutralizing antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus at various time points post-boost. After 180 days of follow-up, 310 participants completed the study. Across all booster groups, neutralizing antibodies against the wild-type virus declined sharply within the first 90 days, accounting for an 81.24 to 92.34% reduction, then slowed down with gradually decreasing decay rates. By day 14 of post-boost, the ability to neutralize the Delta variant slightly diminished compared to the wild-type, whereas neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron variant exhibited a more pronounced decline, ranging from 10.78 to 19.88 times lower than those against the wild-type. Notably, heterologous boosting with the Convidecia vaccine maintained higher GMTs of neutralizing antibodies against both Delta and Omicron variants compared to the other boosters. At 180 days of post-boost, GMTs of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 had substantially decreased, yet individuals who received the Convidecia vaccine still exhibited higher titers than those who received other boosters. In summary, neutralizing antibody levels significantly waned 180 days after the third vaccine dose, with the most pronounced decline occurring within the initial 90 days. Heterologous boosting with Convidecia demonstrated a more robust, durable, and broad humoral immune response compared to boosting with inactivated vaccines or Zifivax, suggesting that adenovirus vector vaccines possess a special advantage in the realm of vaccine development for preventing infectious diseases.

Dataset Information

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling.

Publications

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling.

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