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Risk-benefit analysis of emergency vaccine use.


ABSTRACT: Emergency vaccine use requires weighing a large number of uncertain risks and possible benefits. In the COVID-19 pandemic, decisions about what evidence is necessary to authorize emergency use have proven controversial, and vary between countries. We construct a simple mathematical model of the risks and benefits of emergency vaccination to an individual, and apply this to the hypothetical scenario of individual decision-making between emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine without safety and efficacy data, versus waiting for efficacy and safety to be established. Even with conservative modelling assumptions and uncertainty distributions for vaccine efficacy (mean expectation = 17%) and serious adverse event risk (mean expectation = 0.3%), high risk individuals (e.g. those who are elderly and have a household contact with COVID-19) are better off using the 'emergency vaccine' rather than waiting for more information (absolute risk reduction for mortality up to 2%). Very early emergency authorization of vaccines despite very limited data may be the better public health strategy when confronted with a dangerous emerging infectious disease.

SUBMITTER: Lewis G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9076899 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk-benefit analysis of emergency vaccine use.

Lewis Gregory G   Bonsall Michael M  

Scientific reports 20220506 1


Emergency vaccine use requires weighing a large number of uncertain risks and possible benefits. In the COVID-19 pandemic, decisions about what evidence is necessary to authorize emergency use have proven controversial, and vary between countries. We construct a simple mathematical model of the risks and benefits of emergency vaccination to an individual, and apply this to the hypothetical scenario of individual decision-making between emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine without safety and effic  ...[more]

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