Are E-values too optimistic or too pessimistic? Both and neither!
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sjolander A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9082795 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Are E-values too optimistic or too pessimistic? Both and neither!
Sjölander Arvid A Greenland Sander S
International journal of epidemiology 20220501 2
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Project description:Research suggests that the way individuals are oriented towards the future is deeply embedded in their psychology, shaping how they perceive and react to opportunities and threats, even at unconscious levels. We argue that exposures to opportunities and threats over the life course can shape future orientation at a deep level, and that word-valence effects to survey questions indicate optimistic and pessimistic "perceptual-response reflexes" that are manifestations of unconscious dispositions. Using data collected over 25 years in the Americans' Changing Lives (ACL) study we analyze variation in word-valence effects by age, birth cohort, gender, and race. The broad adult age-range of the sample and the length of follow-up permits the examination of birth cohorts ranging from the "First Children of the 20th Century" (born before 1917) to "Baby Boomers" (born 1947-1962). We find notable differences in age-graded trends across two overarching birth cohort groups: those who reached high school age before the Supreme Court's landmark Brown vs Board of Education decision in 1954 (i.e., born before 1932) and after (i.e., born in 1932 and later). Age-related trends in optimistic perceptual response diverge notably for women versus men, and for Black versus White Americans. Trends in pessimistic perceptual response differ from trends in optimistic response. For example, in early adulthood Black Americans score higher on both optimistic and pessimistic response patterns than White Americans. Birth-cohort differences in both outcomes vary by gender and race. Those differences are interpreted in terms of changes in political, demographic, and sociocultural contexts.
| S-EPMC8890670 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study investigates the compromise allocation of multivariate stratified sampling with complete response and nonresponse. We have formulated a multivariate stratified sampling problem as a mathematical programming problem to estimate p-population means with complete response and nonresponse for a fixed cost. Then, the compromise allocations for sample designs are determined by implementing intuitionistic fuzzy programming using optimistic and pessimistic solution strategies. A simulation study is carried out using the Stratify R software program to demonstrate the complete solution process. In wildlife, agricultural and marketing-related surveys, the study could be helpful. Also, the national planning policies related to surveys in such cases this study could be helpful. This study is an attempt to solve the sampling optimization problem using the Lingo-18 optimization program.
| S-EPMC10121053 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInequalities in health and wealth distributions are becoming pressing societal problems in many countries. How these inequalities are perceived and to what degree perceptions are aligned with actual distributions, is important for trust in public health services, social and economic policies, and policymakers. This study aims to assess perceived and desired levels of inequality in health and wealth in Germany and the UK.MethodsThe online-survey was filled out by 769 volunteers (322 from Germany, 447 from the UK), recruited from an existing commercial panel (Prolific Academic) or via Facebook advertisements in 2019. Perceived and ideal national health and wealth distributions were assessed and compared to actual health indicators (i.e. days absent from work, number of visits to general practitioners (GPs) and self-rated health), and actual wealth distributions with t-tests.ResultsA pronounced gap emerged between the estimated, ideal and actual inequality. Both samples strikingly underestimated the proportion of (very) good health in the national distribution by a factor of ~ 2.3 (participants estimated that 34% of the German and 36% of the UK population respectively are very healthy or healthy, while the actual proportion in the population was 75% in Germany and 84% in the UK, P < 0.001 for all). Moreover, actual health distributions were much closer to the desired than the perceived health distributions (78% of German and 72% of UK participants ideally being very healthy or healthy). A reversed pattern of results emerged for wealth in both samples, with wealth inequality being strikingly worse than desired and inequality being underestimated by a factor ~ 1.7 (P < 0.001 for all). Results were consistent across demographic groups.ConclusionsRespondents in both Germany and the UK have profoundly negative misperceptions regarding the distribution of health, which contrasts with starkly positive misperceptions regarding the distribution of wealth, indicating that the public is healthier but poorer than they think. More importantly, from a public health perspective, a high level of consensus emerged, with both healthy and wealthy participants misperceiving health and wealth distributions.
| S-EPMC8254428 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceIn the neonatal intensive care unit, there is a lack of understanding about how best to communicate the prognosis of a serious complication to parents.ObjectiveTo examine parental preferences and the effects of optimistic vs pessimistic message framing when providing prognostic information about a serious complication.Design, setting, and participantsThis crossover randomized clinical trial was conducted at a single German university medical center between June and October 2021. Eligible participants were parents of surviving preterm infants with a birth weight under 1500 g. Data were analyzed between October 2021 and August 2022.InterventionsAlternating exposure to 2 scripted video vignettes showing a standardized conversation between a neonatologist and parents, portrayed by professional actors, about the prognosis of a hypothetical very preterm infant with severe intraventricular hemorrhage. The video vignettes differed in the framing of identical numerical outcome estimates as either probability of survival and probability of nonimpairment (optimistic framing) or a risk of death and impaired survival (pessimistic framing).Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was preference odds (ratio of preference for optimistic vs pessimistic framing). Secondary outcomes included state anxiety, perceptions of communication, and recall of numerical estimates.ResultsOf 220 enrolled parents (142 [64.5%] mothers; mean [SD] age: mothers, 39.1 [5.6] years; fathers, 42.7 [6.9] years), 196 (89.1%) preferred optimistic and 24 (10.1%) preferred pessimistic framing (preference odds, 11.0; 95% CI, 6.28-19.10; P < .001). Preference for optimistic framing was more pronounced when presented second than when presented first (preference odds, 5.41; 95% CI, 1.77-16.48; P = .003). State anxiety scores were similar in both groups at baseline (mean difference, -0.34; -1.18 to 0.49; P = .42) and increased equally after the first video (mean difference, -0.55; 95% CI, -1.79 to 0.69; P = .39). After the second video, state anxiety scores decreased when optimistic framing followed pessimistic framing but remained unchanged when pessimistic framing followed optimistic framing (mean difference, 2.15; 95% CI, 0.91 to 3.39; P < .001). With optimistic framing, participants recalled numerical estimates more accurately for survival (odds ratio, 4.00; 95% CI, 1.64-9.79; P = .002) but not for impairment (odds ratio, 1.50; 95% CI, 0.85-2.63; P = .16).Conclusions and relevanceWhen given prognostic information about a serious complication, parents of very preterm infants may prefer optimistic framing. Optimistic framing may lead to more realistic expectations for survival, but not for impairment.Trial registrationGerman Clinical Trials Register (DRKS): DRKS00024466.
| S-EPMC10891472 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The precision-recall curve (PRC) and the area under it (AUPRC) are useful for quantifying classification performance. They are commonly used in situations with imbalanced classes, such as cancer diagnosis and cell type annotation. We evaluated 10 popular tools for plotting PRC and computing AUPRC, which were collectively used in >3,000 published studies. We found the AUPRC values computed by the tools rank classifiers differently and some tools produce overly-optimistic results.
| S-EPMC10871236 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionExcessive optimistic perception about the probability of acquiring coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may hinder people from exercising preventive measures, whereas excessive pessimistic perception can induce psychological problems. Not much focus has been paid to this topic, and prior studies are only online surveys. We determined the characteristics of older adults with optimistic and pessimistic perceptions of the probability of contracting COVID-19.MethodsWe used data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES), including 18,045 participants aged ≥ 65 years (mean age: 75.7 years) who were physically and cognitively independent. Self-reported questionnaires were sent to 11 municipalities between November 2020 and February 2021. Multinomial logistic regression was used for data analysis.ResultsThe characteristics of 1,596 (8.8%) participants with optimistic perception and 1,276 (7.1%) with pessimistic perception were compared with that of others (80.4%) with moderate perception. Optimism about infection probability was positively associated with older age; better perceived financial conditions but negatively associated with higher education level; trust in TV news programs, TV information programs, and government-issued newsletters; depressive symptoms; and higher levels of reciprocity. Pessimism was negatively associated with higher levels of social cohesion. In contrast, it was positively associated with engagement in paid work; trust in TV news programs, the Internet, and information from medical staff; and depressive symptoms.ConclusionOptimistic and pessimistic perceptions about the probability of acquiring infection correlated differently with various characteristics. Thus, risk communication during a pandemic should be tailored based on specific individual characteristics.
| S-EPMC9357279 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Judgment bias is the cognitive tendency of animals experiencing negative (or positive) affect to expect undesirable (or favorable) outcomes in ambiguous situations. The lack of examination of judgment biases induced by ecologically relevant stimuli hampers our understanding of the adaptive role of these biases. We examined whether predator-related stimuli, i.e., pictures of snakes, induce a pessimistic judgment bias in Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata). Our subjects underwent a touchscreen-based Go/No-go judgment bias test. We found that the subjects were less likely and slower to make Go responses to ambiguous stimuli after viewing the snake pictures, indicating that pictures of snakes induce a pessimistic evaluation of ambiguous stimuli. In environments with high levels of threat, behavioral strategies that reduce risk-taking would be evolutionarily advantageous. Hence, an affective response system that lowers expectations of favorable outcomes in ambiguous situations after encountering threat-related stimuli would serve adaptive purposes, such as curbing excessive exploratory behavior.
| S-EPMC10474457 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Whether animals experience human-like emotions is controversial and of immense societal concern [1-3]. Because animals cannot provide subjective reports of how they feel, emotional state can only be inferred using physiological, cognitive, and behavioral measures [4-8]. In humans, negative feelings are reliably correlated with pessimistic cognitive biases, defined as the increased expectation of bad outcomes [9-11]. Recently, mammals [12-16] and birds [17-20] with poor welfare have also been found to display pessimistic-like decision making, but cognitive biases have not thus far been explored in invertebrates. Here, we ask whether honeybees display a pessimistic cognitive bias when they are subjected to an anxiety-like state induced by vigorous shaking designed to simulate a predatory attack. We show for the first time that agitated bees are more likely to classify ambiguous stimuli as predicting punishment. Shaken bees also have lower levels of hemolymph dopamine, octopamine, and serotonin. In demonstrating state-dependent modulation of categorization in bees, and thereby a cognitive component of emotion, we show that the bees' response to a negatively valenced event has more in common with that of vertebrates than previously thought. This finding reinforces the use of cognitive bias as a measure of negative emotional states across species and suggests that honeybees could be regarded as exhibiting emotions.
| S-EPMC3158593 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The role of telomerase reverse transcriptase has been widely investigated in the contexts of ageing and age-related diseases. Interestingly, decreased telomerase activities (and accelerated telomere shortening) have also been reported in patients with emotion-related disorders, opening the possibility for subjective appraisal of stressful stimuli playing a key role in stress-driven telomere shortening. In fact, patients showing a pessimistic judgement bias have shorter telomeres. However, in humans the evidence for this is correlational and the causal directionality between pessimism and telomere shortening has not been established experimentally yet. We have developed and validated a judgement bias experimental paradigm to measure subjective evaluations of ambiguous stimuli in zebrafish. This behavioural assay allows classification of individuals in an optimistic-pessimistic dimension (i.e. from individuals that consistently evaluate ambiguous stimuli as negative to others that perceive them as positive). Using this behavioural paradigm we found that telomerase-deficient zebrafish (tert-/-) were more pessimistic in response to ambiguous stimuli than wild-type zebrafish. The fact that individuals with constitutive shorter telomeres have pessimistic behaviours demonstrates for the first time in a vertebrate model a genetic basis of judgement bias.
| S-EPMC8086985 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundOne of the numerous challenges preterm birth poses for parents and physicians is prognostic disclosure. Prognoses are based on scientific evidence and medical experience. They are subject to individual assessment and will generally remain uncertain with regard to the individual. This can result in differences in prognostic framing and thus affect the recipients' perception. In neonatology, data on the effects of prognostic framing are scarce. In particular, it is unclear whether parents prefer a more optimistic or a more pessimistic prognostic framing.ObjectiveTo explore parents' preferences concerning prognostic framing and its effects on parent-reported outcomes and experiences. To identify predictors (demographic, psychological) of parents' communication preferences.Design, setting, participantsUnblinded, randomized controlled crossover trial (RCT) at the Division of Neonatology of the University Medical Center Mainz, Germany, including German-speaking parents or guardians of infants born preterm between 2010 and 2019 with a birth weight < 1500 g. Inclusion of up to 204 families is planned, with possible revision according to a blinded sample size reassessment.InterventionEmbedded in an online survey and in pre-specified order, participants will watch two video vignettes depicting a more optimistic vs. a more pessimistic framing in prognostic disclosure to parents of a preterm infant. Apart from prognostic framing, all other aspects of physician-parent communication are standardized in both videos.Main outcomes and measuresAt baseline and after each video, participants complete a two-part online questionnaire (baseline and post-intervention). Primary outcome is the preference for either a more optimistic or a more pessimistic prognostic framing. Secondary outcomes include changes in state-anxiety (STAI-SKD), satisfaction with prognostic framing, evaluation of prognosis, future optimism and hope, preparedness for shared decision-making (each assessed using customized questions), and general impression (customized question), professionalism (adapted from GMC Patient Questionnaire) and compassion (Physician Compassion Questionnaire) of the consulting physician.DiscussionThis RCT will explore parents' preferences concerning prognostic framing and its effects on physician-parent communication. Results may contribute to a better understanding of parental needs in prognostic disclosure and will be instrumental for a broad audience of clinicians, scientists, and ethicists.Trial registrationGerman Clinical Trials Register DRKS00024466 . Registered on April 16, 2021.
| S-EPMC8647439 | biostudies-literature