Dataset Information

Model-based geostatistics enables more precise estimates of neglected tropical-disease prevalence in elimination settings: mapping trachoma prevalence in Ethiopia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

As the prevalences of neglected tropical diseases reduce to low levels in some countries, policymakers require precise disease estimates to decide whether the set public health targets have been met. At low prevalence levels, traditional statistical methods produce imprecise estimates. More modern geospatial statistical methods can deliver the required level of precision for accurate decision-making.

Methods

Using spatially referenced data from 3567 cluster locations in Ethiopia in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, we developed a geostatistical model to estimate the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis and to calculate the probability that the trachomatous trichiasis component of the elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has already been achieved for each of 482 evaluation units. We also compared the precision of traditional and geostatistical approaches by the ratios of the lengths of their 95% predictive intervals.

Results

The elimination threshold of trachomatous trichiasis (prevalence ≤ 0.2% in individuals aged ≥15 years) is met with a probability of 0.9 or more in 8 out of the 482 evaluation units assessed, and with a probability of ≤0.1 in 469 evaluation units. For the remaining five evaluation units, the probability of elimination is between 0.45 and 0.65. Prevalence estimates were, on average, 10 times more precise than estimates obtained using the traditional approach.

Conclusions

By accounting for and exploiting spatial correlation in the prevalence data, we achieved remarkably improved precision of prevalence estimates compared with the traditional approach. The geostatistical approach also delivers predictions for unsampled evaluation units that are geographically close to sampled evaluation units.

SUBMITTER: Amoah B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9082807 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Model-based geostatistics enables more precise estimates of neglected tropical-disease prevalence in elimination settings: mapping trachoma prevalence in Ethiopia.

Amoah Benjamin B Fronterre Claudio C Johnson Olatunji O Dejene Michael M Seife Fikre F Negussu Nebiyu N Bakhtiari Ana A Harding-Esch Emma M EM Giorgi Emanuele E Solomon Anthony W AW Diggle Peter J PJ

International journal of epidemiology 20220501 2

<h4>Background</h4>As the prevalences of neglected tropical diseases reduce to low levels in some countries, policymakers require precise disease estimates to decide whether the set public health targets have been met. At low prevalence levels, traditional statistical methods produce imprecise estimates. More modern geospatial statistical methods can deliver the required level of precision for accurate decision-making.<h4>Methods</h4>Using spatially referenced data from 3567 cluster locations in ...[more]

PMID: 34791259

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the practice of communication is often called upon when intervening and involving communities affected by NTDs, the disciplinary framework of health communication research has been largely absent from NTD strategies. To illustrate how practices conceptualized and developed within the communication field have been applied in the context of NTD elimination, we conducted a scoping review focusing on two diseases currently targeted for elimination by the WHO: lymphatic filariasis and Chagas disease.MethodsWe examined studies published between 2012 and 2020 in five electronic databases. Selected articles were required to (i) have explicit references to communication in either the abstract, title, or key words; (ii) further elaborate on the search terms (communication, message, media, participation and health education) in the body of the article; and (iii) sufficiently describe communication actions associated to those terms. Using the C-Change Socio-Ecological Model for Social and Behavior Change Communication as a reference, the articles were analysed to identify communication activities, theoretical frameworks, and/or rationales involved in their design, as well as their intended level of influence (individual, interpersonal, community, or enabling environment).Results and implicationsA total of 43 articles were analysed. Most interventions conceptualized communication as a set of support tools or supplemental activities delivering information and amplifying pre-defined messages aimed at increasing knowledge, encouraging community involvement, promoting individual behavior change, or securing some degree of acceptability of proposed strategies. Although important attempts at further exploring communication capabilities were identified, particularly in participation-based strategies, for most studies, communication consisted of an underdeveloped and under-theorized approach. We contend that a more complex understanding of the capacities offered by the health communication field could help attain the biomedical and social justice goals proposed in NTD elimination strategies. Three ways in which the field of health communication could further enhance NTD efforts are presented: informing interventions with theory-based frameworks, exploring the political complexity of community participation in specific contexts, and identifying conceptualizations of culture implied in interventions' design.ConclusionThis article is a call to action to consider the resources offered by the health communication field when researching, designing, or implementing NTD interventions.

Project description:BackgroundLymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, and trachoma are the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases in the world, and each is frequently treated with mass drug administrations. We performed a survey of neglected tropical diseases experts to elicit their opinions on the role of mass drug administrations for the elimination of these infections.Methodology/principal findingsWe sent an online survey to corresponding authors who had published an article about a neglected tropical disease from 2007 to 2011. Of 825 unique authors who were invited to complete the survey, 365 (44.2%) responded, including 234 (28.4%) who answered questions regarding one of the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases. Respondents had varying opinions about the goals of programmatic activities for their chosen neglected tropical disease, with elimination or eradication identified as the most important goal by 87% of lymphatic filariasis respondents, 66% of onchocerciasis respondents, 55% of trachoma respondents, 24% of schistosomiasis respondents, and 21% of soil-transmitted helminth respondents. Mass drug administrations, other non-medication health measures, and education were generally thought to be more important for elimination than vector control, development of a new tool, or the presence of a secular trend. Drug resistance was thought to be a major limitation of mass drug administrations for all five neglected tropical diseases. Over half of respondents for lymphatic filariasis and trachoma thought that repeated mass drug administrations could eliminate infection within ten years of the initiation of mass treatments.Conclusions/significanceRespondents for lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, and trachoma were more enthusiastic about the prospects of elimination and eradication than were respondents for schistosomiasis or soil-transmitted helminths. Mass drug administrations were generally believed to be among the most important factors for the success of elimination efforts for each of the five neglected tropical diseases, highlighting the opportunity for integrating drug distributions.

Dataset Information

Model-based geostatistics enables more precise estimates of neglected tropical-disease prevalence in elimination settings: mapping trachoma prevalence in Ethiopia.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Model-based geostatistics enables more precise estimates of neglected tropical-disease prevalence in elimination settings: mapping trachoma prevalence in Ethiopia.

Similar Datasets

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