Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts.

ABSTRACT: Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet's changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources. Advances in climate prediction mean that in some regions the drivers of these shifts can be forecast up to a decade ahead, although forecasts of distribution shifts on this critical time-scale, while highly sought after by stakeholders, have yet to materialise. Here, we demonstrate the application of decadal-scale climate predictions to the habitat and distribution of marine fish species. We show statistically significant forecast skill of individual years that outperform baseline forecasts 3-10 years ahead; forecasts of multi-ye

SUBMITTER: Payne MR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9098506 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature