Dataset Information

Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts.

ABSTRACT: Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet's changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources. Advances in climate prediction mean that in some regions the drivers of these shifts can be forecast up to a decade ahead, although forecasts of distribution shifts on this critical time-scale, while highly sought after by stakeholders, have yet to materialise. Here, we demonstrate the application of decadal-scale climate predictions to the habitat and distribution of marine fish species. We show statistically significant forecast skill of individual years that outperform baseline forecasts 3-10 years ahead; forecasts of multi-year averages perform even better, yielding correlation coefficients in excess of 0.90 in some cases. We also demonstrate that the habitat shifts underlying conflicts over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could have been foreseen. Our results show that climate predictions can provide information of direct relevance to stakeholders on the decadal-scale. This tool will be critical in foreseeing, adapting to and coping with the challenges of a changing future climate, particularly in the most ocean-dependent nations and communities.

SUBMITTER: Payne MR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9098506 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts.

Payne Mark R MR Danabasoglu Gokhan G Keenlyside Noel N Matei Daniela D Miesner Anna K AK Yang Shuting S Yeager Stephen G SG

Nature communications 20220512 1

Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet's changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources. Advances in climate prediction mean that in some regions the drivers of these shifts can be forecast up to a decade ahead, although forecasts of distribution shifts on this critical time-scale, while highly sought after by stakeholders ...[more]

PMID: 35551195

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Project description:Background: Human activities have resulted in a rapid increase of modified habitats in proximity to wildlife habitats in the Himalaya. However, it is crucial to understand the extent to which human habitat modification affects wildlife. Mesocarnivores generally possess broader niches than large carnivores and adapt quickly to human activities. Here, we use a case study in the western Himalaya to test the hypothesis that human disturbance influenced mesocarnivore habitat use. Methods: We used camera trapping and mitochondrial DNA-based species identification from faecal samples to obtain mesocarnivore detections. We then compared the responses of mesocarnivores between an anthropogenic site and a less disturbed park along a contiguous gradient in habitat quality. The non-linear pattern in species-specific habitat selection and factors responsible for space usage around villages was captured using hierarchical generalized additive modelling (HGAM) and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination. Results: Wildlife occurrences along the gradient varied by species. Leopard cat and red fox were the only terrestrial mesocarnivores that occurred in both anthropogenic site and park. We found a shift in habitat selection from less disturbed habitat in the park to disturbed habitat in anthropogenic site for the species detected in both the habitat types. For instance, red fox showed habitat selection towards high terrain ruggedness (0.5 to 0.7 TRI) and low NDVI (-0.05 to 0.2) in the park but no such specific selection in anthropogenic site. Further, leopard cat showed habitat selection towards moderate slope (20°) and medium NDVI (0.5) in park but no prominent habitat selections in anthropogenic site. The results revealed their constrained behaviour which was further supported by the intensive site usage close to houses, agricultural fields and human trails in villages. Conclusions: Our results indicate shifts in habitat selection and intensive site usage by mesocarnivores in the human-modified habitat. In future, this suggests the possibility of conflict and disease spread affecting both the people and wildlife. Therefore, this study highlights the requisite to test the wildlife responses to rapidly growing human expansions in modified habitats to understand the extent of impact. The management strategies need to have an integrated focus for further expansions of modified habitat and garbage disposal strategies, especially in the human-wildlife interface area.

Dataset Information

Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts.

Publications

Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts.

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