Analyzing inherent biases in SARS-CoV-2 PCR and serological epidemiologic metrics.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Prospective observational data show that infected persons with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remain polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive for a prolonged duration, and that detectable antibodies develop slowly with time. We aimed to analyze how these effects can bias key epidemiological metrics used to track and monitor SARS-CoV-2 epidemics.

Methods

An age-structured mathematical model was constructed to simulate progression of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in populations. PCR testing to diagnose infection and cross-sectional surveys to measure seroprevalence were also simulated. Analyses were conducted on simulated outcomes assuming a natural epidemic time course and an epidemic in presence of interventions.

Results

The prolong

SUBMITTER: Makhoul M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9100306 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature