Dataset Information

Uncertainty About the Size of the Unauthorized Foreign-Born Population in the United States.

ABSTRACT: One of the most common methods for estimating the U.S. unauthorized foreign-born population is the residual method. Over the last decade, residual estimates have typically fallen within a narrow range of 10.5 to 12 million. Yet it remains unclear how sensitive residual estimates are to their underlying assumptions. We examine the extent to which estimates may plausibly vary owing to uncertainties in their underlying assumptions about coverage error, emigration, and mortality. Findings show that most of the range in residual estimates derives from uncertainty about emigration rates among legal permanent residents, naturalized citizens, and humanitarian entrants (LNH); estimates are less sensitive to assumptions about mortality among the LNH foreign-born and coverage error for the unauthorized and LNH populations in U.S. Census Bureau surveys. Nevertheless, uncertainty in all three assumptions contributes to a range of estimates, whereby there is a 50% chance that the unauthorized foreign-born population falls between 9.1 and 12.2 million and a 95% chance that it falls between 7.0 and 15.7 million.

SUBMITTER: Van Hook J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9107075 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Uncertainty About the Size of the Unauthorized Foreign-Born Population in the United States.

Van Hook Jennifer J Morse Anne A Capps Randy R Gelatt Julia J

Demography 20211201 6

One of the most common methods for estimating the U.S. unauthorized foreign-born population is the residual method. Over the last decade, residual estimates have typically fallen within a narrow range of 10.5 to 12 million. Yet it remains unclear how sensitive residual estimates are to their underlying assumptions. We examine the extent to which estimates may plausibly vary owing to uncertainties in their underlying assumptions about coverage error, emigration, and mortality. Findings show that ...[more]

PMID: 34568900

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background and aimsEleven million unauthorized immigrants reside in the United States and may account for 3% of deceased organ donors. Recently introduced federal and state legislation propose to address access to organ transplantation among unauthorized immigrants. The national landscape of liver transplantation (LT) for unauthorized immigrants is unknown.Approach and resultsWe included all US LT recipients between March 2012 and December 2018 who were linked to Pew Center of Research data to estimate the population of unauthorized immigrants in each US state and by country of origin, based on US Census data. We categorized patients as unauthorized immigrants versus US citizens/residents. The main outcome measures were (1) the proportion of LTs performed for unauthorized immigrants compared with the proportion of unauthorized immigrants among total population in each US state and (2) graft failure and death post-LT. Of 43,192 LT recipients, 43,026 (99.6%) were US citizens/residents and 166 (0.4%) were unauthorized immigrants. Among unauthorized immigrants, most LTs were performed in California (47%) and New York (18%). The absolute difference in proportion of LTs performed for unauthorized immigrants compared with the proportion of unauthorized immigrants among the total population differed among states, ranging from +20% in California to -12% in Texas. The most common countries of birth among LT recipients who were unauthorized immigrants were Mexico (52%), Guatemala (7%), China (6%), El Salvador (5%), and India (5%). In competing risk analysis, unauthorized immigration status (vs. US citizens/residents) was associated with a similar risk of graft failure (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-1.34; P = 0.38) and death (sHR 0.68; 95% CI, 0.36-1.29; P = 0.23).ConclusionsLT for unauthorized immigrants is rare, and disparities in access to LT by state are present. Patient and graft survival among unauthorized immigrants is comparable with citizens/residents.

Project description:IntroductionThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is considering implementation of overseas medical screening of student-visa applicants to reduce the numbers of active tuberculosis cases entering the United States.ObjectiveTo evaluate the costs, cases averted, and cost-effectiveness of screening for, and treating, tuberculosis in United States-bound students from countries with varying tuberculosis prevalence.MethodsCosts and benefits were evaluated from two perspectives, combined and United States only. The combined perspective totaled overseas and United States costs and benefits from a societal perspective. The United States only perspective was a domestic measure of costs and benefits. A decision tree was developed to determine the cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis screening and treatment from the combined perspective.ResultsFrom the United States only perspective, overseas screening programs of Chinese and Indian students would prevent the importation of 157 tuberculosis cases annually, and result in $2.7 million in savings. From the combined perspective, screening programs for Chinese students would cost more than $2.8 million annually and screening programs for Indian students nearly $440,000 annually. From the combined perspective, the incremental cost for each tuberculosis case averted by screening Chinese and Indian students was $22,187 and $15,063, respectively. Implementing screening programs for German students would prevent no cases in most years, and would result in increased costs both overseas and in the United States. The domestic costs would occur because public health departments would need to follow up on students identified overseas as having an elevated risk of tuberculosis.ConclusionsTuberculosis screening and treatment programs for students seeking long term visas to attend United States schools would reduce the number of tuberculosis cases imported. Implementing screening in high-incidence countries could save the United States millions of dollars annually; however there would be increased costs incurred overseas for students and their families.

Dataset Information

Uncertainty About the Size of the Unauthorized Foreign-Born Population in the United States.

Publications

Uncertainty About the Size of the Unauthorized Foreign-Born Population in the United States.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets