Dataset Information

Infectivity versus fatality of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and influenza.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Because of the spread of the Omicron variant, many countries have experienced COVID-19 case numbers unseen since the start of the pandemic. We aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics of Omicron with previous variants and different strains of influenza to provide context for public health responses.

Methods

We developed transmission models for SARS-CoV-2 variants and influenza, in which transmission, death, and vaccination rates were taken to be time-varying. We fit our model based on publicly available data in South Africa, the United States, and Canada. We used this model to evaluate the relative transmissibility and mortality of Omicron compared with previous variants and influenza.

Results

We found that Omicron is more transmissible and less fatal than both seasonal and 2009 H1N1 influenza and the Delta variant; these characteristics make Omicron epidemiologically more similar to influenza than it is to Delta. We estimate that as of February 7, 2022, booster doses have prevented 4.29×10⁷ and 1.14×10⁶ Omicron infections in the United States and Canada, respectively.

Conclusion

Our findings indicate that the high infectivity of Omicron will keep COVID-19 endemic, similar to influenza. However, because of Omicron's lower fatality rate, our work suggests that human populations living with SARS-CoV-2 are most likely.

SUBMITTER: Xue L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9107628 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Infectivity versus fatality of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and influenza.

Xue Ling L Jing Shuanglin S Zhang Kai K Milne Russell R Wang Hao H

International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases 20220515

<h4>Objectives</h4>Because of the spread of the Omicron variant, many countries have experienced COVID-19 case numbers unseen since the start of the pandemic. We aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics of Omicron with previous variants and different strains of influenza to provide context for public health responses.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed transmission models for SARS-CoV-2 variants and influenza, in which transmission, death, and vaccination rates were taken to be time-varying ...[more]

PMID: 35584743

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Project description:Background, Aims, Methods, Results, Conclusions: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a global challenge due to its ability to mutate into variants that spread more rapidly than the wild-type virus. The molecular biology of this virus has been extensively studied and computational methods applied are an example paradigm for novel antiviral drug therapies. The rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the human population is driven, in part, by mutations in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S-) protein, some of which enable tighter binding to angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE2). More stable RBD-ACE2 association is coupled with accelerated hydrolysis by proteases, such as furin, trypsin, and the Transmembrane Serine Protease 2 (TMPRSS2) that augment infection rates, while inhibition of the 3-chymotrypsin-like protease (3CLpro) can prevent the viral replication. Additionally, non-RBD and non-interfacial mutations may assist the S-protein in adopting thermodynamically favorable conformations for stronger binding. This study aimed to report variant distribution of SARS-CoV-2 across European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries and relate mutations with the driving forces that trigger infections. Variants' distribution data for SARS-CoV-2 across EU/EEA countries were mined from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) based on the sequence or genotyping data that are deposited in the Global Science Initiative for providing genomic data (GISAID) and The European Surveillance System (TESSy) databases. Docking studies performed with AutoDock VINA revealed stabilizing interactions of putative antiviral drugs, e.g., selected anionic imidazole biphenyl tetrazoles, with the ACE2 receptor in the RBD-ACE2 complex. The driving forces of key mutations for Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Kappa, Lambda, and Omicron variants, which stabilize the RBD-ACE2 complex, were investigated by computational approaches. Arginine is the critical amino acid in the polybasic furin cleavage sites S1/S2 (681-PRRARS-686) S2' (814-KRS-816). Critical mutations into arginine residues that were found in the delta variant (L452R, P681R) and may be responsible for the increased transmissibility and morbidity are also present in two widely spreading omicron variants, named BA.4.6 and BQ.1, where mutation R346T in the S-protein potentially contributes to neutralization escape. Arginine binders, such as Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (ARBs), could be a class of novel drugs for treating COVID-19.

Dataset Information

Infectivity versus fatality of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and influenza.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Infectivity versus fatality of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and influenza.

Similar Datasets

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