The determinants of the changing speed of spread of COVID-19 across Italy.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cocco P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9114753 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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The determinants of the changing speed of spread of COVID-19 across Italy.
Cocco Pierluigi P De Matteis Sara S
Epidemiology and infection 20220506
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Project description:Although the Covid-19 pandemic is still ongoing, the environmental factors beyond virus transmission are only partially known. This statistical study has the aim to identify the key factors that have affected the virus spread during the early phase of pandemic in Italy, among a wide set of potential determinants concerning demographics, environmental pollution and climate. Because of its heterogeneity in pollution levels and climate conditions, Italy provides an ideal scenario for an ecological study. Moreover, the selected period excludes important confounding factors, as different virus variants, restriction policies or vaccines. The short-term relationship between the infection maximum increase and demographic, pollution and meteo-climatic parameters was investigated, including both winter-spring and summer 2020 data, also focusing separately on the two seasonal periods and on North vs Centre-South. Among main results, the importance of population size confirmed social distancing as a key management option. The pollution hazardous role undoubtedly emerged, as NO2 affected infection increase in all the studied scenarios, PM2.5 manifested its impact in North of Italy, while O3 always showed a protective action. Whereas higher temperatures were beneficial, especially in the cold season with also wind and relative humidity, solar irradiance was always relevant, revealing several significant interactions with other co-factors. Presented findings address the importance of the environment in Sars-CoV-2 spread and indicated that special carefulness should be taken in crowded areas, especially if they are highly polluted and weakly exposed to sun. The results suggest that containment of future epidemics similar to Covid-19 could be supported by reducing environmental pollution, achieving safer social habits and promoting preventive health care for better immune system response, as an only comprehensive strategy.
| S-EPMC10079324 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in China at the end of 2019 and it has since spread in few months all over the World. Italy was one of the first Western countries who faced the health emergency and is one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic. The diffusion of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy has followed a peculiar spatial pattern, however the attention of the scientific community has so far focussed almost exclusively on the prediction of the evolution of the disease over time.MethodsOfficial freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon.ResultsThree subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts for the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting.ConclusionsA strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the European Union or the United States, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.
| S-EPMC7509829 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions, based on modeling of the unfolding epidemic. We test modeling options of the spatially explicit type, suggested by the wave of infections spreading from the initial foci to the rest of Italy. We estimate parameters of a metacommunity Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-like transmission model that includes a network of 107 provinces connected by mobility at high resolution, and the critical contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We estimate a generalized reproduction number ([Formula: see text] = 3.60 [3.49 to 3.84]), the spectral radius of a suitable next-generation matrix that measures the potential spread in the absence of containment interventions. The model includes the implementation of progressive restrictions after the first case confirmed in Italy (February 21, 2020) and runs until March 25, 2020. We account for uncertainty in epidemiological reporting, and time dependence of human mobility matrices and awareness-dependent exposure probabilities. We draw scenarios of different containment measures and their impact. Results suggest that the sequence of restrictions posed to mobility and human-to-human interactions have reduced transmission by 45% (42 to 49%). Averted hospitalizations are measured by running scenarios obtained by selectively relaxing the imposed restrictions and total about 200,000 individuals (as of March 25, 2020). Although a number of assumptions need to be reexamined, like age structure in social mixing patterns and in the distribution of mobility, hospitalization, and fatality, we conclude that verifiable evidence exists to support the planning of emergency measures.
| S-EPMC7229754 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The purpose of this study was to explore the prevalence, personal- and work-related exposures, and signs and symptoms among physical therapists during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy. This cross-sectional, survey-based study collected demographic and exposure data from physical therapists from April to May 2020. All physical therapists working in inpatient and outpatient care in Italy were eligible. A self-administered questionnaire was distributed among all eligible physical therapists to collect (1) demographic characteristics, (2-3) personal- and work-related exposures, and (4) signs and symptoms of COVID-19. Factors associated with a COVID-19-positive nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) were explored through logistic regression models and multivariate methods. A total of 15,566 respondents completed the survey, with a response rate of 43.3%, achieving high statistical precision (99% CI, 1% type I error). Among physical therapists who received NPS testing, 13.1% (95% CI = 12.1-14.1%) had a positive result, with a peak reached in March 2020 (36%). The top 5 symptoms were fatigue and tiredness (69.1%), loss of smell (64.5%), aches and pains (60.8%), loss of taste (58.3%), and headache (51.1%). No symptoms were reported by 8.9%. Working in a health care institution (odds ratio [OR] = 12.0; 95% CI = 7.8-18.4), being reallocated to a different unit (OR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.3-2.7), and changing job tasks (OR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.2-2.3) increased the risk of being COVID-19 positive. In therapists with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19, comorbidities were associated with male sex and age older than 51 years. During the first wave in Italy, almost 1 out of 7 physical therapists tested positive on the COVID-19 NPS test. Considering personal- and work-related exposures, health care organizations should adopt prevention measures and adequate preparedness to prevent high rate of infections during future pandemics. This is the largest investigation about the spread of and main risk factors for COVID-19 in the physical therapy field.
| S-EPMC8136025 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.
| S-EPMC7449964 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Click here to listen to the Podcast.
| S-EPMC7174009 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPublic transportation is a major facilitator of the spread of infectious diseases and has been a focus of policy interventions aiming to suppress the current COVID-19 epidemic.MethodsWe use a random-effects panel data model and a Difference-in-Differences in Reverse (DDR) model to examine how air and rail transport links with Wuhan as well as the suspension of these transport links influenced the development of the epidemic in China.ResultsWe find high-speed rail (HSR) and air connectivity with Wuhan resulted in 25.4% and 21.2% increases in the average number of daily new confirmed cases, respectively, while their suspension led to 18.6% and 13.3% decreases in that number. We also find that the suspension effect was dynamic, growing stronger over time and peaking 20-23 days after the Wuhan lockdown, then gradually wearing off. It took approximately four weeks for this effect to fully materialize, roughly twice the maximum incubation period, and similar dynamic patterns were seen in both HSR and air models. Overall, HSR had a greater impact on COVID-19 development than air transport.ConclusionsOur research provides important evidence for implementing transportation-related policies in controlling future infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC8166159 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study explores the impact of relevant characteristics of counties and their relationship with increases in COVID-19 cases before shelter-in-place (SIP) orders in the U.S. The recent emergence of COVID-19 occurs when there is little understanding of the related factors affecting the growth and spread of the disease. These relationships are examined through an analysis of 672 counties before SIP orders were issued. Areas that experienced the most significant transmission of disease are identified, and their characteristics are analyzed. A meaningful relationship was found between the increase of COVID-19 cases and several factors. Average commute time and the proportion of commuters using transit had a positive relationship. Along with other socio-economic factors, such as median house value and proportion of the Black population, several transportation-related factors had a significant association with the transmission of the disease. The decrease rate of total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) before and after SIP orders also had a solid and positive relationship with the expansion of the disease. The findings suggest that planners and transportation service providers must integrate evolving public health considerations into transportation services which affect the increase in the transmission of infectious diseases.
| S-EPMC10149509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (April to May 2020), 6,169 Polish and 939 Italian residents were surveyed with an online questionnaire investigating socio-demographic information and personality traits (first section) as well as attitudes, position, and efficacy perceptions on the impact of lockdown (second section) and various health protection measures enforced (third section). Methods: The "health protection attitude score" (HPAS), an endpoint obtained by pooling up the answers to questions of the third section of the survey tool, was investigated by multiple linear regression models, reporting regression coefficients (RC) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: Concerns for business and health due to COVID-19 were associated with a positive attitude toward risk reduction rules. By contrast, male sex, concerns about the reliability of information available online on COVID-19 and its prevention, along with the feeling of not being enough informed on the transmissibility/prevention of SARS-CoV-2 were associated with a negative attitude toward risk mitigation measures. Discussion: A recent literature review identified two social patterns with different features in relation to their attitude toward health protection rules against the spread of COVID-19. Factors positively associated with adherence to public health guidelines were perceived threat of COVID-19, trust in government, female sex, and increasing age. Factors associated with decreased compliance were instead underestimation of the COVID-19 risk, limited knowledge of the pandemic, belief in conspiracy theories, and political conservativism. Very few studies have tested interventions to change attitudes or behaviors. Conclusion: To improve attitude and compliance toward risk reduction norms, a key intervention is fostering education and knowledge on COVID-19 health risk and prevention among the general population. However, information on COVID-19 epidemiology might be user-generated and contaminated by social media, which contributed to creating an infodemic around the disease. To prevent the negative impact of social media and to increase adherence to health protection, stronger content control by providers of social platforms is recommended.
| S-EPMC8754188 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The relation between meteorological factors and COVID-19 spread remains uncertain, particularly with regard to the role of temperature, relative humidity and solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To assess this relation, we investigated disease spread within Italy during 2020. The pandemic had a large and early impact in Italy, and during 2020 the effects of vaccination and viral variants had not yet complicated the dynamics. We used non-linear, spline-based Poisson regression of modeled temperature, UV and relative humidity, adjusting for mobility patterns and additional confounders, to estimate daily rates of COVID-19 new cases, hospital and intensive care unit admissions, and deaths during the two waves of the pandemic in Italy during 2020. We found little association between relative humidity and COVID-19 endpoints in both waves, whereas UV radiation above 40 kJ/m2 showed a weak inverse association with hospital and ICU admissions in the first wave, and a stronger relation with all COVID-19 endpoints in the second wave. Temperature above 283 K (10 °C/50 °F) showed a strong non-linear negative relation with COVID-19 endpoints, with inconsistent relations below this cutpoint in the two waves. Given the biological plausibility of a relation between temperature and COVID-19, these data add support to the proposition that temperature above 283 K, and possibly high levels of solar UV radiation, reduced COVID-19 spread.
| S-EPMC10069087 | biostudies-literature