Viral transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 accelerates in the winter, similarly to influenza epidemics.

ABSTRACT: The transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 is anticipated to increase in the winter because of increased viral survival in cold damp air and thus would exacerbate viral spread in community. Analysis to capture the seasonal trend is needed to be prepared for future epidemics. We compared regression models for the 5-week case prior to each epidemic peak week for both the COVID-19 and influenza epidemics in winter and summer. The weekly case increase ratio was compared, using non-paired t tests between seasons. In order to test the robustness of seasonal transmission patterns, the normalized weekly case numbers of COVID-19 and influenza case rates of all seasons were assessed in a combined quadratic regression analysis. In winter, the weekly case increase ratio accelerated before epidemic peaks, simi

SUBMITTER: Inaida S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9121648 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature