The impact of public health interventions on the future prevalence of ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae: a population based mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Future prevalence of colonization with extended-spectrum betalactamase (ESBL-) producing K. pneumoniae in humans and the potential of public health interventions against the spread of these resistant bacteria remain uncertain.

Methods

Based on antimicrobial consumption and susceptibility data recorded during > 13 years in a Swiss region, we developed a mathematical model to assess the comparative effect of different interventions on the prevalence of colonization.

Results

Simulated prevalence stabilized in the near future when rates of antimicrobial consumption and in-hospital transmission were assumed to remain stable (2025 prevalence: 6.8% (95CI%:5.4-8.8%) in hospitals, 3.5% (2.5-5.0%) in the community versus 6.1% (5.0-7.5%) and 3.2% (2.3-4.2%) in 2019, r

SUBMITTER: Salazar-Vizcaya L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9125893 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature