Less Partnering, Less Children, or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010.

ABSTRACT: In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this decline results from decreased fertility within unions, changing union dynamics, or both. Thus, we investigated changes in the union-first birth dynamics from 2000 through 2018 in Finland using full-coverage population register data and an incidence-based multistate model. To do so, we calculated the yearly age-specific transition probabilities across states of single, cohabitation, marriage, and first births among 15- to 45-year-old childless men and women. We found lower fertility rates in unions after 2010, increasing dissolution rates amongst cohabiting couples, and long-term declines in the transition to marriage. Counterfactual

SUBMITTER: Hellstrand J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9127029 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature