Assessing the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in China in the era of highly transmissible variants.

ABSTRACT: We developed a spatially structured, fully stochastic, individual-based SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to evaluate the feasibility of sustaining SARS-CoV-2 local containment in mainland China considering currently dominant Omicron variants, China's current immunization level, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We also built a statistical model to estimate the overall disease burden under various hypothetical mitigation scenarios. We found that due to high transmissibility, neither Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 could be contained by China's pre-Omicron NPI strategies which were successful prior to the emergence of the Omicron variants. However, increased intervention intensity, such as enhanced population mobility restrictions and multi-round mass testing, could lead to containment success.

SUBMITTER: Wang Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9128785 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature