Imported cases and minimum temperature drive dengue transmission in Guangzhou, China: evidence from ARIMAX model.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is the fastest spreading mosquito-transmitted disease in the world. In China, Guangzhou City is believed to be the most important epicenter of dengue outbreaks although the transmission patterns are still poorly understood. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model incorporating external regressors to examine the association between the monthly number of locally acquired dengue infections and imported cases, mosquito densities, temperature and precipitation in Guangzhou. In multivariate analysis, imported cases and minimum temperature (both at lag 0) were both associated with the number of locally acquired infections (P < 0.05). This multivariate model performed best, featuring the lowest fitting root mean squared error (RMSE) (0.7520), AIC (393.7854) and test R

SUBMITTER: Jing QL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9134281 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature