Estimating the likely true changes in rheumatic fever incidence using two data sources.

ABSTRACT: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) continues to produce a significant burden of disease in New Zealand (NZ) Māori and Pacific peoples. Serious limitations in national surveillance data mean that accurate case totals cannot be generated. Given the changing epidemiology of ARF in NZ and the major national rheumatic fever prevention programme (2012-2017), we updated our previous likely true case number estimates using capture-recapture analyses. Aims were to estimate the likely true incidence of ARF in NZ and comment on the changing ability to detect cases. Data were obtained from national hospitalisation and notification databases. The Chapman Estimate partially adjusted for bias. An estimated 2342 likely true new cases arose from 1997 to 2015, giving a mean annual incidence of 2·9 per 100 000 (95%

SUBMITTER: Oliver J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9134743 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature