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Projected Impact of Weight Gain During the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Burden of Cancer in Canada.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting public health measures have had significant impacts on daily life, including shifts in health behaviours which contribute to weight gain and may increase subsequent risk of chronic diseases such as cancer. Using OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool, we estimated the future burden of cancer in Canada by incorporating data on unintentional weight gain among adults during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Population impact measures were estimated until 2042, assuming a 12-year latency period. We estimated 14,194 excess cancer cases and 5,324 excess cancer deaths by 2042 due to COVID-19 related weight gain. Particularly large impacts were estimated for endometrial and breast cancer among women, with 2,983 and 2,151 excess cases by 2042. For men, 1,700 excess colorectal cases and 1,188 excess kidney cancer cases were projected by 2042. Changes in health behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to have significant and long-lasting impacts on cancer burden. These projections highlight the immediate need for investment into the development and implementation of effective cancer prevention strategies.

SUBMITTER: Murphy RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9135177 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projected Impact of Weight Gain During the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Burden of Cancer in Canada.

Murphy Rachel A RA Parks Jaclyn J Woods Ryan R Brenner Darren R DR Ruan Yibing Y Bhatti Parveen P

Frontiers in oncology 20220512

The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting public health measures have had significant impacts on daily life, including shifts in health behaviours which contribute to weight gain and may increase subsequent risk of chronic diseases such as cancer. Using OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool, we estimated the future burden of cancer in Canada by incorporating data on unintentional weight gain among adults during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Population impact measures were estimated unti ...[more]

PMID: 35646682

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Project description:BackgroundTo limit transmission of COVID-19, state governments issued shelter-in-place orders. These orders coincided with a decrease in daily step count and an increase in overeating. We evaluated factors associated with weight gain of ≥ 15 pounds during the pandemic within an integrated health care system.MethodsWe included adults ages 18 and above with at least one weight measurement before the pandemic (March 19, 2019-March 19, 2020) and another measurement after COVID-19 vaccines became available, more than 9 months into the pandemic (December 14, 2020-December 14, 2021). Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with weight gain of 15 pounds or more.ResultsOf 524,451 adults included in the study, median age was 61 years, 43.2% were men, 36.2% self identified as White, 8.6% Black, 35.7% Hispanic, and 16.2% Asian. During the pandemic, 38,213 (7.3%) adults gained ≥ 15 pounds. A higher proportion of young adults gained weight (16.2% age 18-39, 7.6% age 40-64, 4.7% age 65-79%, and 3.1% age ≥ 80). No significant difference was observed between men and women (7.2% men and 7.4% women). Weight gain was more prevalent among adults from low-income neighborhoods (8.9% low-income neighborhoods, 8.0% intermediate-income neighborhoods, and 6.5% high-income neighborhoods). Multivariable logistic regression demonstrated that compared to adults ages 65-79 years, young adults ages 18-39 years had the highest risk of gaining ≥ 15 pounds (adjusted OR 5.19, 95% CI 5.01-5.38). Black race was associated with weight gain in an unadjusted analysis (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.21-1.30). However, this association was significantly attenuated after adjusting for other risk factors including neighborhood income levels (adjusted OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.10). Having a diagnosis of depression pre-pandemic was also associated with weight gain during the pandemic (adjusted OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.50-1.58).ConclusionIn this racially and ethnically diverse population in southern California, significant weight gain of 15 pounds or more was observed in 7.3% of the adult population during the COVID-19 pandemic. Young adults, individuals who resided in low-income neighborhoods, and patients with depression were disproportionally affected.

Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in changes in lifestyle habits and experiences of mental health outcomes, some of which were possibly related to weight gain, leading to an increase in the prevalence of obesity, which is associated with the development of several severe diseases. Concerns regarding weight gain and its impact on health outcomes are prevalent worldwide, with obesity being one of the highest causes of mortality in current society.MethodsA self-reported questionnaire collected data from participants aged 18 years of age and above from 26 countries and regions worldwide. Post-hoc multiple logistic regression analyses have been done to evaluate the association between demographic and socioeconomic factors, and the perspectives that were identified to be associated with weight gain.ResultsParticipants belonging to a younger age group; with a higher level of education; living in an urban area; living with family members; employed full-time; and had obesity were found to be more vulnerable to weight gain. After adjusting for socio-demographic factors, participants who were quarantined; exercised less prior to the pandemic; consumed unhealthy foods; and reported negative thoughts such as helplessness and the perceived risk of COVID-19, were more likely to experience weight gain; while negative thoughts such as having no means of control over the COVID-19 pandemic and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will have great personal effect were associated with females, students, and people living in the rural area.ConclusionsWeight gain risk during the pandemic was significantly associated with certain socio-demographic and COVID-19 related factors. To improve public health outcomes, future research should conduct a longitudinal evaluation on the effects of COVID-19 experiences upon health choices. Streamlined mental support should also be provided to the vulnerable groups which were prone to negative thoughts that were associated with weight gain.

Dataset Information

Projected Impact of Weight Gain During the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Burden of Cancer in Canada.

Publications

Projected Impact of Weight Gain During the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Future Burden of Cancer in Canada.

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