Emergency Medical Services Calls Analysis for Trend Prediction during Epidemic Outbreaks: Interrupted Time Series Analysis on 2020-2021 COVID-19 Epidemic in Lazio, Italy.

ABSTRACT: (1) Background: During the COVID-19 outbreak in the Lazio region, a surge in emergency medical service (EMS) calls has been observed. The objective of present study is to investigate if there is any correlation between the variation in numbers of daily EMS calls, and the short-term evolution of the epidemic wave. (2) Methods: Data from the COVID-19 outbreak has been retrieved in order to draw the epidemic curve in the Lazio region. Data from EMS calls has been used in order to determine Excess of Calls (ExCa) in the 2020-2021 years, compared to the year 2019 (baseline). Multiple linear regression models have been run between ExCa and the first-order derivative (D') of the epidemic wave in time, each regression model anticipating the epidemic progression (up to 14 days), in order to probe a

SUBMITTER: Vinci A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9140838 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature