Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging.

ABSTRACT: Early prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this paper we focus on the estimation of the final size and the turning point of the epidemic and conduct a real

SUBMITTER: Sebrango-Rodriguez CR 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9148827 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature