Epidemiological investigations on the potential transmissibility of a rare disease: the case of atypical scrapie in Great Britain.

ABSTRACT: Multiple cases of atypical scrapie in the same holding and co-existence with classical scrapie have been reported in Great Britain. A two-stage simulation tool was developed by combining a sampling algorithm and a hierarchical Bayesian model to simulate the number of positive cases of atypical scrapie from: (i) random sampling and (ii) using the actual sampled population in Great Britain, being the output probability of detection of flocks with one and more cases. Cluster analysis was conducted to assess the level of geographical over- and under-sampling over the years. The probability of detecting at least two cases of atypical scrapie in the same holding is much lower in simulated random data than in simulated actual data for all scenarios. Sampling bias in the selection of sheep for tes

SUBMITTER: Ortiz-Pelaez A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9150592 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature