Can China achieve its climate pledge: a multi-scenario simulation of China's energy-related CO₂ emission pathways based on Kaya identity.

ABSTRACT: China is currently in the process of the middle and late stage of industrialization, and energy-related CO₂ emissions have reached 10 Gt. This paper models energy consumption and related CO₂ emissions and analyzes the development trends of various driving factors of CO₂ emissions, explicitly considering China's economic and social development goals in the medium- and long-term. Different scenarios for 2020-2060 are projected based on the Kaya identity. Energy consumption will peak at 6,200 Mtce in 2035 in the BAU scenario with the energy-related CO₂ emissions peaking at 11.1 Gt in 2026-2027 advanced by the rising non-fossil energy share, while energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the accelerated transition scenario would be potentia

SUBMITTER: Liu H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9154211 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature