Dataset Information

Can China achieve its climate pledge: a multi-scenario simulation of China's energy-related CO₂ emission pathways based on Kaya identity.

ABSTRACT: China is currently in the process of the middle and late stage of industrialization, and energy-related CO₂ emissions have reached 10 Gt. This paper models energy consumption and related CO₂ emissions and analyzes the development trends of various driving factors of CO₂ emissions, explicitly considering China's economic and social development goals in the medium- and long-term. Different scenarios for 2020-2060 are projected based on the Kaya identity. Energy consumption will peak at 6,200 Mtce in 2035 in the BAU scenario with the energy-related CO₂ emissions peaking at 11.1 Gt in 2026-2027 advanced by the rising non-fossil energy share, while energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the accelerated transition scenario would be potentially reduced by 300 Mtce and 300-400 Mt respectively. In the BAU scenario, the net CO₂ emissions will remain around 2,000 Mt in 2060, after removing 1,800 Mt by CCS/CCUS, indicating that China needs to enhance its post-2030 policy to deliver the carbon neutrality pledge. Steady energy efficiency improvement, radical industrial and energy restructuring are three key driving forces for carbon neutrality.

SUBMITTER: Liu H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9154211 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Can China achieve its climate pledge: a multi-scenario simulation of China's energy-related CO2 emission pathways based on Kaya identity.

Liu Hongxin H Zhang Jian J Yuan Jiahai J

Environmental science and pollution research international 20220531 49

China is currently in the process of the middle and late stage of industrialization, and energy-related CO2 emissions have reached 10 Gt. This paper models energy consumption and related CO2 emissions and analyzes the development trends of various driving factors of CO2 emissions, explicitly considering China's economic and social development goals in the medium- and long-term. Different scenarios for 2020-2060 are projected based on the Kaya identity. Energy con ...[more]

PMID: 35641739

Similar Datasets

Project description:In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location.

Dataset Information

Can China achieve its climate pledge: a multi-scenario simulation of China's energy-related CO₂ emission pathways based on Kaya identity.

Publications

Can China achieve its climate pledge: a multi-scenario simulation of China's energy-related CO<sub>2</sub> emission pathways based on Kaya identity.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets