Dataset Information

E-Cigarette Use and Combustible Cigarette Smoking Initiation Among Youth: Accounting for Time-Varying Exposure and Time-Dependent Confounding.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Youth e-cigarette use is associated with the initiation of combustible cigarette smoking, but prior studies have rarely accounted for time-varying measures of e-cigarette exposure or time-dependent confounding of e-cigarette use and smoking initiation.

Methods

Using five waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (2013-2019), we estimated marginal structural models with inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights to examine the association between time-varying e-cigarette initiation and subsequent cigarette smoking initiation among e-cigarette- and cigarette-naïve youth (12-17 years) at baseline. Time-dependent confounders used as predictors in inverse probability weights included tobacco-related attitudes or beliefs, mental health symptoms, substance use, and tobacco-marketing exposure.

Results

Among 9,584 youth at baseline, those who initiated e-cigarettes were 2.4 times as likely to subsequently initiate cigarette smoking as youth who did not initiate e-cigarettes (risk ratio = 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.1, 2.7), after accounting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias. Among youth who initiated e-cigarettes, more frequent vaping was associated with greater risk of smoking initiation (risk ratio ≥3 days/month = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4, 2.2; 1-2 days/month = 1.2; 95% CI = 0.93, 1.6 vs. 0 days/month). Weighted marginal structural model estimates were moderately attenuated compared with unweighted estimates adjusted for baseline-only confounders. At the US population level, we estimated over half a million youth initiated cigarette smoking because of prior e-cigarette use over follow-up.

Conclusions

The association between youth vaping and combustible cigarette smoking persisted after accounting for time-dependent confounding. We estimate that e-cigarette use accounts for a considerable share of cigarette initiation among US youth. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B937.

SUBMITTER: Harlow AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9156560 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

e-Cigarette Use and Combustible Cigarette Smoking Initiation Among Youth: Accounting for Time-Varying Exposure and Time-Dependent Confounding.

Harlow Alyssa F AF Stokes Andrew C AC Brooks Daniel R DR Benjamin Emelia J EJ Barrington-Trimis Jessica L JL Ross Craig S CS

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20220329 4

<h4>Background</h4>Youth e-cigarette use is associated with the initiation of combustible cigarette smoking, but prior studies have rarely accounted for time-varying measures of e-cigarette exposure or time-dependent confounding of e-cigarette use and smoking initiation.<h4>Methods</h4>Using five waves of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (2013-2019), we estimated marginal structural models with inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights to examine the association betwe ...[more]

PMID: 35394965

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Project description:ImportanceExposure to nicotine in electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) is becoming increasingly common among adolescents who report never having smoked combustible tobacco.ObjectiveTo evaluate whether e-cigarette use among 14-year-old adolescents who have never tried combustible tobacco is associated with risk of initiating use of 3 combustible tobacco products (ie, cigarettes, cigars, and hookah).Design, setting, and participantsLongitudinal repeated assessment of a school-based cohort at baseline (fall 2013, 9th grade, mean age = 14.1 years) and at a 6-month follow-up (spring 2014, 9th grade) and a 12-month follow-up (fall 2014, 10th grade). Ten public high schools in Los Angeles, California, were recruited through convenience sampling. Participants were students who reported never using combustible tobacco at baseline and completed follow-up assessments at 6 or 12 months (N = 2530). At each time point, students completed self-report surveys during in-classroom data collections.ExposureStudent self-report of whether he or she ever used e-cigarettes (yes or no) at baseline.Main outcomes and measuresSix- and 12-month follow-up reports on use of any of the following tobacco products within the prior 6 months: (1) any combustible tobacco product (yes or no); (2) combustible cigarettes (yes or no), (3) cigars (yes or no); (4) hookah (yes or no); and (5) number of combustible tobacco products (range: 0-3).ResultsPast 6-month use of any combustible tobacco product was more frequent in baseline e-cigarette ever users (n = 222) than never users (n = 2308) at the 6-month follow-up (30.7% vs 8.1%, respectively; difference between groups in prevalence rates, 22.7% [95% CI, 16.4%-28.9%]) and at the 12-month follow-up (25.2% vs 9.3%, respectively; difference between groups, 15.9% [95% CI, 10.0%-21.8%]). Baseline e-cigarette use was associated with greater likelihood of use of any combustible tobacco product averaged across the 2 follow-up periods in the unadjusted analyses (odds ratio [OR], 4.27 [95% CI, 3.19-5.71]) and in the analyses adjusted for sociodemographic, environmental, and intrapersonal risk factors for smoking (OR, 2.73 [95% CI, 2.00-3.73]). Product-specific analyses showed that baseline e-cigarette use was positively associated with combustible cigarette (OR, 2.65 [95% CI, 1.73-4.05]), cigar (OR, 4.85 [95% CI, 3.38-6.96]), and hookah (OR, 3.25 [95% CI, 2.29-4.62]) use and with the number of different combustible products used (OR, 4.26 [95% CI, 3.16-5.74]) averaged across the 2 follow-up periods.Conclusions and relevanceAmong high school students in Los Angeles, those who had ever used e-cigarettes at baseline compared with nonusers were more likely to report initiation of combustible tobacco use over the next year. Further research is needed to understand whether this association may be causal.