COVID-19 in the 47 countries of the WHO African region: a modelling analysis of past trends and future patterns.

ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 has affected the African region in many ways. We aimed to generate robust information on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in this region since the beginning of the pandemic and throughout 2022.

Methods

For each of the 47 countries of the WHO African region, we consolidated COVID-19 data from reported infections and deaths (from WHO statistics); published literature on socioecological, biophysical, and public health interventions; and immunity status and variants of concern, to build a dynamic and comprehensive picture of COVID-19 burden. The model is consolidated through a partially observed Markov decision process, with a Fourier series to produce observed patterns over time based on the SEIRD (denoting susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, and

SUBMITTER: Cabore JW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9159735 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature