The impact of three progressively introduced interventions on second wave daily COVID-19 case numbers in Melbourne, Australia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The city of Melbourne, Australia experienced two waves of the COVID-19 epidemic peaking, the first in March and a more substantial wave in July 2020. During the second wave, a series of control measure were progressively introduced that initially slowed the growth of the epidemic then resulted in decreasing cases until there was no detectable local transmission.

Methods

To determine the relative efficacy of the progressively introduced intervention measures, we modelled the second wave as a series of exponential growth and decay curves. We used a linear regression of the log of daily cases vs time, using a four-segment linear spline model corresponding to implementation of the three successive major public health measures. The primary model used all reported cases

SUBMITTER: Saul A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9160504 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature