Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided th

SUBMITTER: Cramer EY 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9169655 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature