Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake.

ABSTRACT: Fire is an important climate-driven disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems, also modulated by human ignitions or fire suppression. Changes in fire emissions can feed back on the global carbon cycle, but whether the trajectories of changing fire activity will exacerbate or attenuate climate change is poorly understood. Here, we quantify fire dynamics under historical and future climate and human demography using a coupled global climate–fire–carbon cycle model that emulates 34 individual Earth system models (ESMs). Results are compared with counterfactual worlds, one with a constant preindustrial fire regime and another without fire. Although uncertainty in projected fire effects is large and depends on ESM, socioeconomic trajectory, and emissions scenario, we find that changes in human demo

SUBMITTER: Wu C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9171792 | biostudies-literature | 2022 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature