On the existence of momentum in professional football.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Roebber PJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9173601 | biostudies-literature | 2022
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
On the existence of momentum in professional football.
Roebber Paul J PJ Burlingame Bryan M BM deWinter Anthony A
PloS one 20220607 6
Using United States National Football League play-by-play data for the 2002-2012 seasons, we train a neural network to predict win probability, based on measures of the game state. This predictor's performance is comparable to the point spread at the start of the game and improves thereafter with little bias. We define a measure of success as the change in a team's win probability over the course of a possession, and show that streaks in this measure are highly unlikely to be random. Further, th ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:High-level football (soccer) players face intense physical demands that result in acute and residual fatigue, impairing their physical performance in subsequent matches. Further, top-class players are frequently exposed to match-congested periods where sufficient recovery times are not achievable. To evaluate training and recovery strategies, the monitoring of players' recovery profiles is crucial. Along with performance and neuro-mechanical impairments, match-induced fatigue causes metabolic disturbances denoted by changes in chemical analytes that can be quantified in different body fluids such as blood, saliva, and urine, thus acting as biomarkers. The monitoring of these molecules might supplement performance, neuromuscular and cognitive measurements to guide coaches and trainers during the recovery period. The present narrative review aims to comprehensively review the scientific literature on biomarkers of post-match recovery in semi-professional and professional football players as well as provide an outlook on the role that metabolomic studies might play in this field of research. Overall, no single gold-standard biomarker of match-induced fatigue exists, and a range of metabolites are available to assess different aspects of post-match recovery. The use of biomarker panels might be suitable to simultaneously monitoring these broad physiological processes, yet further research on fluctuations of different analytes throughout post-match recovery is warranted. Although important efforts have been made to address the high interindividual heterogeneity of available markers, limitations inherent to these markers might compromise the information they provide to guide recovery protocols. Further research on metabolomics might benefit from evaluating the long-term recovery period from a high-level football match to shed light upon new biomarkers of post-match recovery.
| S-EPMC10126523 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceStudies of American-style football players have suggested lower overall mortality rates compared with general populations, but with possibly increased neurodegenerative mortality. However, comparisons with general populations can introduce bias. This study compared mortality between US National Football League (NFL) and US Major League Baseball (MLB) players, a more appropriate comparison group of professional athletes.ObjectiveTo compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality between NFL and MLB players.Design, setting, and participantsIn this retrospective cohort study, the setting was US mortality from January 1, 1979, through December 31, 2013. The dates of analysis were January 2016 to April 2019. Participants were 3419 NFL and 2708 MLB players with at least 5 playing seasons.ExposuresParticipation in the NFL compared with the MLB.Main outcomes and measuresVital status and causes of death from the National Death Index from 1979 through 2013 were obtained. Cox proportional hazards regression models using age as the timescale were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs to examine all-cause and cause-specific mortality among NFL players compared with MLB players, adjusted for race and decade of birth.ResultsBy the end of follow-up, there were 517 deaths (mean [SD] age, 59.6 [13.2] years) in the NFL cohort and 431 deaths (mean [SD] age, 66.7 [12.3] years) in the MLB cohort. Cardiovascular and neurodegenerative conditions, respectively, were noted as underlying or contributing causes in 498 and 39 deaths in the NFL and 225 and 16 deaths in the MLB. Compared with MLB players, NFL players had significantly elevated rates of all-cause (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.44), cardiovascular disease (HR, 2.40; 95% CI, 2.03-2.84), and neurodegenerative disease (HR, 2.99; 95% CI, 1.64-5.45) mortality. Comparing hypothetical populations of 1000 NFL and 1000 MLB players followed up to age 75 years, there would be an excess 21 all-cause deaths among NFL players, as well as 77 and 11 more deaths with underlying or contributing causes that included cardiovascular and neurodegenerative conditions, respectively.Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that NFL players had elevated all-cause, cardiovascular, and neurodegenerative mortality rates compared with MLB players, although the absolute number of excess neurodegenerative deaths was still small. Factors that vary across these sports (eg, body habitus and head trauma) as opposed to those common across sports (eg, physical activity) could underlie the differences.
| S-EPMC6632140 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent research concludes that professional American football players (hereafter, "football players") live longer than American men in general, despite experiencing higher rates of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This suggests that the longevity-enhancing benefits of playing football (e.g., physical fitness, money) outweigh the costs associated with CTE, CVD, and other longevity detriments of playing football. However, these surprising results may be the consequence of flawed research design. To investigate, we conducted two analyses. In analysis 1, we compared a) all professional American football players whose first season was 1986 or between 1988 and 1995 to b) a random sample of same-age American men observed as part of the National Health Interview Surveys in those same years selected on good health, at least 3 y of college, and not being poor. The exposure consists of playing one or more games of professional football; the outcome is risk of death within 25 y. In analysis 2, we use data on 1,365 men drafted to play in the (American) National Football League in the 1950s-906 of whom ultimately played professional football, and 459 of whom never played a game in any professional league. We estimate the association between playing football and survival through early 2023. In both analyses, we investigate differences between linemen and other position players. In contrast to most prior research, in both analyses, we find that linemen died earlier than otherwise similar men; men who played other positions died no earlier (or later).
| S-EPMC10636321 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The study of financial distress has been the focus of financial research in recent decades and has led to the development of models for predicting financial distress that help assess the financial situation and the risks faced by companies. These models have focused exclusively on industrial and financial companies. However, a specific model that reflects the special characteristics of the football industry has not yet been created. Since recently the governing bodies of the football industry have increased the financial control of the clubs, as in the case of UEFA with the approval of the Financial Fair Play Regulation and demand a pronouncement on going concern in the annual financial statements of clubs as well as presenting a break-even deficit caused by losses, it seems necessary to have a model adapted to the characteristics of this industry. The present study provides a new model of prediction of financial distress for the football industry with an accuracy that exceeds 90%. It also offers a vision of the challenges facing the football industry in financial matters, helping the different interest groups to assess the financial solvency expectations of the clubs.
| S-EPMC6932787 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Large cohort studies have reported that former professional football players have an increased risk of mortality from neurodegenerative disease. Due to emerging concerns regarding the safety of heading the technique is now banned for players under 12. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the association between heading exposure and cognitive function in professional football players. A search strategy was devised and entered into seven electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, PsycINFO, CENTRAL, SportDiscus and PEDro. The search identified 563 records. After screening records and applying the eligibility criteria, nine cross-sectional studies (n=925) were included in the review, investigating 452 current and 473 former players (859 males, 66 females). Six studies (n=595) reported evidence for an association between heading and impaired cognitive function, while three studies (n=330) reported no association. Diverse cognitive domains were investigated, which might underline the disparity in these results. The association between heading and cognitive function in professional football appears likely but remains inconclusive. Methodological heterogeneity and variability in the presentation of results limits the conclusions drawn. Prospective longitudinal studies using standardised methods, and including females, are required to provide evidence to support or refute an association.
| S-EPMC11884919 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Noncontact injuries are prevalent among professional football players. Yet, most research on this topic is retrospective, focusing solely on statistical correlations between Global Positioning System (GPS) metrics and injury occurrence, overlooking the multifactorial nature of injuries. This study introduces an automated injury identification and prediction approach using machine learning, leveraging GPS data and player-specific parameters. A sample of 34 male professional players from a Portuguese first-division team was analyzed, combining GPS data from Catapult receivers with descriptive variables for machine learning models-Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Feedforward Neural Networks (FNNs), and Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost)-to predict injuries. These models, particularly the SVMs with cost-sensitive learning, showed high accuracy in detecting injury events, achieving a sensitivity of 71.43%, specificity of 74.19%, and overall accuracy of 74.22%. Key predictive factors included the player's position, session type, player load, velocity and acceleration. The developed models are notable for their balanced sensitivity and specificity, efficiency without extensive manual data collection, and capability to predict injuries for short time frames. These advancements will aid coaching staff in identifying high-risk players, optimizing team performance, and reducing rehabilitation costs.
| S-EPMC11694968 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coaches at the professional level are often concerned about negative side effects from testing and intensive resistance training periods, and they are not willing to base their training prescriptions on data obtained from semiprofessional or amateur football players. Consequently, the purpose of this study was to analyze the reliability and effectiveness of two adductor injury active prevention programs using the adductor/abductor ratio and deficit between legs, on the basis of adduction-abduction power output during the exercises proposed, in professional football players. Forty-eight professional football players undertook complementary strength training for the adductor and abductor muscles in their dominant and non-dominant legs, once or twice a week throughout the playing season. The volume of the session was determined by the adductor/abductor ratio and the deficit between legs in the last session training measured. The number and severity of muscle injuries per 1000 h of exposure were recorded. Both prevention programs showed a very low rate of adductor injury (0.27 and 0.07 injuries/1000 h) with mild-to-moderate severity, maintaining a balance in percentage asymmetry between dominant and non-dominant legs for adductor (10.37%) and in the adductor/abductor ratio (0.92) in top professional football players throughout the season. The strength conditioning program proposed can help to prevent adductor muscle injuries in top professional football players.
| S-EPMC7504263 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceLong-term adverse health outcomes, particularly those associated with repetitive head impacts, are of growing concern among US-style football players in the US and Canada.ObjectiveTo assess whether exposure to repetitive head impacts during a professional football career is associated with an increase in the risk of all-cause mortality.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study included 13 912 players in the 1969 to 2017 National Football League (NFL) seasons. All cause-mortality up until July 1, 2018, was included. Data collection was performed from July 13, 2017, to July 1, 2018, as reported in the Pro Football Reference.ExposuresThe main exposure was a professional football cumulative head impact index (pfCHII). The pfCHII was measured by combining cumulative padded practice time and games played summed during seasons of play reported in the Pro Football Reference and a player position risk adjustment from helmet accelerometer studies.Main outcomes and measuresDemographic characteristics except for the pfCHII were calculated for 14 366 players with complete follow-up. The pfCHII was calculated for 13 912 players (eliminating the 454 specials teams players). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compare hazard ratios (HRs) of death by repetitive head impacts. Analyses were unadjusted and adjusted for birth year, body mass index, and height.ResultsAmong 14 366 NFL players who had follow-up for analysis, the mean (SD) age was 47.3 (14.8) years, the mean (SD) body mass index was 29.6 (3.9), and 763 of 14 366 players (5.3%) had died. Among 13 912 players in the pfCHII analysis, the median pfCHII was 32.63 (interquartile range, 13.71-66.12). A 1-log increase in pfCHII was significantly associated with an increased hazard of death for the 1969 to 2017 seasons (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.21-3.37; P = .01) after adjustment. The quadratic pfCHII was also statistically significant (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.85-0.98; P = .01), indicating that the hazard of death increased at a decreasing rate, whereas the pfCHII increased.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that an increase in repetitive head impacts is associated with an increased hazard of death among NFL players. Reduction in repetitive head impacts from playing football or other activities through additional rule and equipment changes may be associated with reduced mortality.
| S-EPMC7215260 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceParticipation in American-style football (ASF) has been linked to chronic traumatic encephalopathy neuropathological change (CTE-NC), a specific neuropathologic finding that can only be established at autopsy. Despite being a postmortem diagnosis, living former ASF players may perceive themselves to have CTE-NC. At present, the proportion and clinical correlates of living former professional ASF athletes with perceived CTE who report suicidality are unknown.ObjectiveTo determine the proportion, clinical correlates, and suicidality of living former professional ASF players with perceived CTE.Design, setting, and participantsA cross-sectional study within the Football Players Health Study at Harvard University was conducted from 2017 to 2020. Using electronic and paper surveys, this population-based study included former ASF players who contracted with a professional league from 1960 to 2020 and volunteered to fill out a baseline survey. Data for this study were analyzed from June 2023 through March 2024.ExposuresData included demographics, football-related exposures (eg, position, career duration), and current health problems (anxiety, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, depression, diabetes, emotional and behavioral dyscontrol symptoms, headache, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, low testosterone level, pain, sleep apnea, and subjective cognitive function).Main outcomes and measuresThe proportion of participants reporting perceived CTE. Univariable and multivariable models were used to determine clinical and suicidality correlates of perceived CTE.ResultsAmong 4180 former professional ASF players who volunteered to fill out a baseline survey, 1980 (47.4%) provided follow-up data (mean [SD] age, 57.7 [13.9] years). A total of 681 participants (34.4%) reported perceived CTE. Subjective cognitive difficulties, low testosterone level, headache, concussion signs and symptoms accrued during playing years, depressive/emotional and behavioral dyscontrol symptoms, pain, and younger age were significantly associated with perceived CTE. Suicidality was reported by 171 of 681 participants with perceived CTE (25.4%) and 64 of 1299 without perceived CTE (5.0%). After adjusting for established suicidality predictors (eg, depression), men with perceived CTE remained twice as likely to report suicidality (odds ratio, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.36-3.12; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that approximately one-third of living former professional ASF players reported perceived CTE. Men with perceived CTE had an increased prevalence of suicidality and were more likely to have health problems associated with cognitive impairment compared with men without perceived CTE. Perceived CTE represents a novel risk factor for suicidality and, if present, should motivate the diagnostic assessment and treatment of medical and behavioral conditions that may be misattributed to CTE-NC.
| S-EPMC11420824 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background (1): Football is the most popular sport among men, associated with a certain risk of injury, which leads to short- and long-term health consequences. While the injury profile of professional footballers is known, little is known about the injury profile of amateur footballers; amateur football is a major and diverse area, the development of which should be a priority for football associations around the world and UEFA. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review of epidemiological literature data on injuries in professional and amateur football players belonging to certain leagues. Methods (2): A systematic review according to the PRISMA guidelines was performed until June 2023 in the databases PubMed, Web of Science, Google Academic, Google Scholar, and Diva portal. Forty-six studies reporting injury incidence in professional and amateur men's football were selected and analyzed. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality using an adapted version of the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) statement and the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) to assess risk of bias for the quality of external validity. Results (3): The overall incidence of injuries in professional male football players was 7.75 ± 2.28, 95% confidence interval, injuries/1000 h of exposure and that of amateur football players was 7.98 ± 2.95, 95% confidence interval, injuries/1000 h of exposure. The incidence of match injuries (30.64 ± 10.28, 95% confidence interval, injuries/1000 exposure hours) was 7.71 times higher than the training injury incidence rate (3.97 ± 1.35, 95% confidence interval, injuries/1000 h) in professional football players and 5.45 times higher in amateurs (17.56 ± 6.15 vs. 3.22 ± 1.4, 95% confidence interval, injuries/1000 h). Aggregate lower extremity injuries had the highest prevalence in both categories of footballers, being 83.32 ± 4.85% in professional footballers and 80.4 ± 7.04% in amateur footballers: thigh, ankle, and knee injuries predominated. Conclusions (4): Professional and amateur football players are at substantial risk of injury, especially during matches that require the highest level of performance. Injury rates have implications for players, coaches, and sports medicine practitioners. Therefore, information on football injuries can help develop personalized injury risk mitigation strategies that could make football safer for both categories of football players. The current findings have implications for the management, monitoring, and design of training, competition, injury prevention, especially severe injury, and education programs for amateur football players.
| S-EPMC10488230 | biostudies-literature