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A measure to estimate the risk of imported COVID-19 cases and its application for evaluating travel-related control measures.

ABSTRACT: High connectivity between nations facilitates the spread of infectious diseases. We introduce an improved measure to estimate the risk of COVID-19 importation. The measure was applied to identify the effectiveness of travel-related control measures. We estimated the risk of importation, using the product of air-travel volume and COVID-19 prevalence in the area-of-origin. Travel volumes were acquired through real-time mobile data, and prevalence was calculated considering the time-varying strength of the COVID-19 testing policy. With the measure, the number of expected-imported cases was calculated, and compared with the reported-imported COVID-19 cases before and after post-entry quarantine for all entrants. The expected and reported-imported cases were well fitted (R² = 0.8). A maximum of 35 undetected-imported cases was estimated to have entered Seoul, before the first imported COVID-19 case was confirmed. With the travel-related control measures, at most, 48 (73%) imported cases could be isolated from the local community. Our measure predicted trends in imported COVID-19 cases well. The method used to develop the measure can be applied to future emerging infectious diseases. Our results provide a 'real-world' evidence that travel-related control measures are effective at curbing further COVID-19 transmission.

SUBMITTER: Kang H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9178220 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectivesTo comprehensively map the existing evidence assessing the impact of travel-related control measures for containment of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic.DesignRapid evidence map.Data sourcesMEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science, and COVID-19 specific databases offered by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the WHO.Eligibility criteriaWe included studies in human populations susceptible to SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19, SARS-CoV-1/severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus/Middle East respiratory syndrome or influenza. Interventions of interest were travel-related control measures affecting travel across national or subnational borders. Outcomes of interest included infectious disease, screening, other health, economic and social outcomes. We considered all empirical studies that quantitatively evaluate impact available in Armenian, English, French, German, Italian and Russian based on the team's language capacities.Data extraction and synthesisWe extracted data from included studies in a standardised manner and mapped them to a priori and (one) post hoc defined categories.ResultsWe included 122 studies assessing travel-related control measures. These studies were undertaken across the globe, most in the Western Pacific region (n=71). A large proportion of studies focused on COVID-19 (n=59), but a number of studies also examined SARS, MERS and influenza. We identified studies on border closures (n=3), entry/exit screening (n=31), travel-related quarantine (n=6), travel bans (n=8) and travel restrictions (n=25). Many addressed a bundle of travel-related control measures (n=49). Most studies assessed infectious disease (n=98) and/or screening-related (n=25) outcomes; we found only limited evidence on economic and social outcomes. Studies applied numerous methods, both inferential and descriptive in nature, ranging from simple observational methods to complex modelling techniques.ConclusionsWe identified a heterogeneous and complex evidence base on travel-related control measures. While this map is not sufficient to assess the effectiveness of different measures, it outlines aspects regarding interventions and outcomes, as well as study methodology and reporting that could inform future research and evidence synthesis.

Project description:Background:Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging mosquito-borne disease that can cause severe birth defects if contracted congenitally. Since late 2015, there has been a large increase in the number of travel-related cases of Zika virus infection in Canada. Objective:The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology of travel-related Zika cases in Canada from October 2015 to June 2017 and review them in the context of the international outbreak in the Americas. Methods:Zika virus infections were confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) detection of viral RNA and/or the serological identification of ZIKV-specific antibodies in serum. Cases of ZIKV infection were identified by provincial and territorial health authorities, and reported on a regular basis to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). Case information requested included date of illness onset, age category, sex, pregnancy status, and location(s) and dates of travel. Estimates for the monthly number of Canadians travelling outside of Canada to other countries in the Americas were obtained from Statistics Canada and the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Data to produce the epidemic curves of autochthonous cases for each region of the Americas were extracted from country-specific epidemic curves on the Pan American Health Organization website. Results:As of June 7, 2017, 513 laboratory confirmed cases and two Zika-related birth/fetal anomalies were reported across all 10 provinces. Illness in Canadian travellers generally coincided with outbreak intensity in the country of exposure rather than travel volume. There has been no evidence of autochthonous (local) transmission in Canada. Currently, cases are on the decline both in Canada and internationally. Conclusion:The surge in Canadian ZIKV infections in 2016 was directly related to the incursion and spread of ZIKV into the Americas. Although cases are now on the decline worldwide, it remains to be seen whether a resurgence of cases in previously affected or new areas will occur. Both outbreak intensity and seasonality of ZIKV transmission should be monitored over time in order to inform the timing of public health education campaigns, as some may turn out to be more effective in the off-peak travel season when the risk of disease transmission may be higher. Ongoing education and awareness among travellers, particularly for pregnant women and those planning pregnancies, is still indicated.

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A measure to estimate the risk of imported COVID-19 cases and its application for evaluating travel-related control measures.

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