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A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Malaria Test Positivity Outcomes and Programme Interventions in Low Transmission Settings in Southern Africa, 2000-2021.

ABSTRACT: Malaria is one of the most significant causes of mortality and morbidity globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. It harmfully disturbs the public's health and the economic growth of many developing countries. Despite the massive effect of malaria transmission, the overall pooled proportion of malaria positivity rate in Southern Africa is still elusive. Therefore, the objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to pool estimates of the incidence of the malaria positivity rate, which is the first of its kind in South African countries. A literature search is performed to identify all published articles reporting the incidence of malaria positivity in Southern Africa. Out of the 3359 articles identified, 17 studies meet the inclusion for systematic review and meta-analysis. In addition, because substantial heterogeneity is expected due to the studies being extracted from the universal population, random-effects meta-analyses are carried out to pool the incidence of the malaria positivity rate from diverse diagnostic methods. The result reveals that between-study variability is high (τ² = 0.003; heterogeneity I² = 99.91% with heterogeneity chi-square χ² = 18,143.95, degree of freedom = 16 and a p-value < 0.0001) with the overall random pooled incidence of 10% (95%CI: 8-13%, I² = 99.91%) in the malaria positivity rate. According to the diagnostic method called pooled incidence estimate, the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is the leading diagnostic method (17%, 95%CI: 11-24%, I² = 99.95%), followed by RDT and qPCR and RDT and loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), respectively, found to be (3%, 95%CI: 2-3%, I² = 0%) and (2%, 95%CI: 1-3%, I² = 97.94%).Findings of the present study suggest high malaria positive incidence in the region. This implies that malaria control and elimination programmes towards malaria elimination could be negatively impacted and cause delays in actualising malaria elimination set dates. Further studies consisting of larger samples and continuous evaluation of malaria control programmes are recommended.

SUBMITTER: Oyegoke OO

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9180605 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Malaria Test Positivity Outcomes and Programme Interventions in Low Transmission Settings in Southern Africa, 2000-2021.

Oyegoke Olukunle O OO Akoniyon Olusegun P OP Ogunsakin Ropo E RE Ogunlana Michael O MO Adeleke Matthew A MA Maharaj Rajendra R Okpeku Moses M

International journal of environmental research and public health 20220601 11

Malaria is one of the most significant causes of mortality and morbidity globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. It harmfully disturbs the public’s health and the economic growth of many developing countries. Despite the massive effect of malaria transmission, the overall pooled proportion of malaria positivity rate in Southern Africa is still elusive. Therefore, the objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to pool estimates of the incidence of the malaria pos ...[more]

PMID: 35682356

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Project description:BackgroundMalaria transmission in Africa is facilitated by multiple species of Anopheles mosquitoes. These vectors have different behaviors and vectorial capacities and are affected differently by vector control interventions, such as insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying. This review aimed to assess changes in the contribution of different vector species to malaria transmission in east and southern Africa over 20 years of widespread insecticide-based vector control.MethodsWe searched PubMed, Global Health, and Web of Science online databases for articles published between January 2000 and April 2023 that provided species-specific sporozoite rates for different malaria vectors in east and southern Africa. We extracted data on study characteristics, biting rates, sporozoite infection proportions, and entomological inoculation rates (EIR). Using EIR data, the proportional contribution of each species to malaria transmission was estimated.ResultsStudies conducted between 2000 and 2010 identified the Anopheles gambiae complex as the primary malaria vector, while studies conducted from 2011 to 2021 indicated the dominance of Anopheles funestus. From 2000 to 2010, in 57% of sites, An. gambiae demonstrated higher parasite infection prevalence than other Anopheles species. Anopheles gambiae also accounted for over 50% of EIR in 76% of the study sites. Conversely, from 2011 to 2021, An. funestus dominated with higher infection rates than other Anopheles in 58% of sites and a majority EIR contribution in 63% of sites. This trend coincided with a decline in overall EIR and the proportion of sporozoite-infected An. gambiae. The main vectors in the An. gambiae complex in the region were Anopheles arabiensis and An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.), while the important member of the An. funestus group was An. funestus s.s.ConclusionThe contribution of different vector species in malaria transmission has changed over the past 20 years. As the role of An. gambiae has declined, An. funestus now appears to be dominant in most settings in east and southern Africa. Other secondary vector species may play minor roles in specific localities. To improve malaria control in the region, vector control should be optimized to match these entomological trends, considering the different ecologies and behaviors of the dominant vector species.

Project description:BACKGROUND: In malaria endemic areas, continuous exposure to Plasmodium parasites leads to asymptomatic carriers that provide a fundamental reservoir of parasites, contributing to the persistence of malaria transmission. Therefore, in the present investigation, the presence and prevalence of malaria asymptomatic cases were determined to evaluate the reservoir of infection in two malaria endemic areas with a previous history of malaria transmission in the south of Iran, Bashagard and Ghale-Ganj districts of Hormozgan and Kerman provinces, respectively, where malaria transmission has been drastically reduced in the recent years. METHODS: The population samples (n = 500 from each of the studied areas) were randomly collected from non-febrile, long-term residing, aged two to over 60 years, during 20092010. Three identical surveys were carried out in both study areas and in each phase all the consent participants were interviewed and clinically examined. In all, three surveys to detect hidden parasite reservoirs (both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax), thick and thin blood smears and a highly sensitive nested-PCR were applied. In addition, the sero-prevalence survey for detecting malaria exposure was done by using a serological marker. RESULTS: In this study, P. vivax and P. falciparum parasites were not detected by light microscopy and nested-PCR assay in all three surveys of samples. Antibody responses against P. vivax and P. falciparum were detected in 1% and 0.2% of the total examined individuals, respectively, in Bashagard district. Regarding to Ghale-Ganj district, about 0.9% of the individuals had IgG -specific antibody to P. vivax at the first and second surveys, but at the third survey 0.45% of the participants had positive antibody to P. vivax parasite. IgG -specific antibody to P. falciparum was detected in 0.2% of the participants at the first and follow-up surveys. The overall regional differences were not statistically significant (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Taken together, the lack of asymptomatic carrier with the evidence of extremely low sero-positive to both P. vivax and P. falciparum among examined individuals supported the limited recent transmission in the studied areas and, therefore, these parts of Iran have potential to eliminate the disease in the next few years. However, continued follow up and action are still needed in both studied areas and also in their neighbouring province, Sistan and Baluchistan, which has the highest reported cases of malaria in Iran and also, has the largest border line with Afghanistan and Pakistan, with no elimination activities. This data will provide useful information for managing elimination activities in Iran.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria surveillance is critical for monitoring changes in malaria morbidity over time. National Malaria Control Programmes often rely on surrogate measures of malaria incidence, including the test positivity rate (TPR) and total laboratory confirmed cases of malaria (TCM), to monitor trends in malaria morbidity. However, there are limited data on the accuracy of TPR and TCM for predicting temporal changes in malaria incidence, especially in high burden settings.MethodsThis study leveraged data from 5 malaria reference centres (MRCs) located in high burden settings over a 15-month period from November 2018 through January 2020 as part of an enhanced health facility-based surveillance system established in Uganda. Individual level data were collected from all outpatients including demographics, laboratory test results, and village of residence. Estimates of malaria incidence were derived from catchment areas around the MRCs. Temporal relationships between monthly aggregate measures of TPR and TCM relative to estimates of malaria incidence were examined using linear and exponential regression models.ResultsA total of 149,739 outpatient visits to the 5 MRCs were recorded. Overall, malaria was suspected in 73.4% of visits, 99.1% of patients with suspected malaria received a diagnostic test, and 69.7% of those tested for malaria were positive. Temporal correlations between monthly measures of TPR and malaria incidence using linear and exponential regression models were relatively poor, with small changes in TPR frequently associated with large changes in malaria incidence. Linear regression models of temporal changes in TCM provided the most parsimonious and accurate predictor of changes in malaria incidence, with adjusted R2 values ranging from 0.81 to 0.98 across the 5 MRCs. However, the slope of the regression lines indicating the change in malaria incidence per unit change in TCM varied from 0.57 to 2.13 across the 5 MRCs, and when combining data across all 5 sites, the R2 value reduced to 0.38.ConclusionsIn high malaria burden areas of Uganda, site-specific temporal changes in TCM had a strong linear relationship with malaria incidence and were a more useful metric than TPR. However, caution should be taken when comparing changes in TCM across sites.

Project description:BackgroundTemperature suitability for malaria transmission is a useful predictor variable for spatial models of malaria infection prevalence. Existing continental or global models, however, are synoptic in nature and so do not characterize inter-annual variability in seasonal patterns of temperature suitability, reducing their utility for predicting malaria risk.MethodsA malaria Temperature Suitability Index (TSI) was created by first modeling minimum and maximum air temperature with an eight-day temporal resolution from gap-filled MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daytime and night-time Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets. An improved version of an existing biological model for malaria temperature suitability was then applied to the resulting temperature information for a 13-year data series. The mechanism underlying this biological model is simulation of emergent mosquito cohorts on a two-hour time-step and tracking of each cohort throughout its life to quantify the impact air temperature has on both mosquito survival and sporozoite development.ResultsThe results of this research consist of 154 monthly raster surfaces that characterize spatiotemporal patterns in TSI across Africa from April 2000 through December 2012 at a 1 km spatial resolution. Generalized TSI patterns were as expected, with consistently high values in equatorial rain forests, seasonally variable values in tropical savannas (wet and dry) and montane areas, and low values in arid, subtropical regions. Comparisons with synoptic approaches demonstrated the additional information available within the dynamic TSI dataset that is lost in equivalent synoptic products derived from long-term monthly averages.ConclusionsThe dynamic TSI dataset presented here provides a new product with far richer spatial and temporal information than any other presently available for Africa. As spatiotemporal malaria modeling endeavors evolve, dynamic predictor variables such as the malaria temperature suitability data developed here will be essential for the rational assessment of changing patterns of malaria risk.

Project description:BackgroundOver a decade ago, the Roll Back Malaria Partnership was launched, and since then there has been unprecedented investment in malaria control. We examined the change in malaria transmission intensity during the period 2000-10 in Africa.MethodsWe assembled a geocoded and community Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate standardised to the age group 2-10 years (PfPR2-10) database from across 49 endemic countries and territories in Africa from surveys undertaken since 1980. The data were used within a Bayesian space-time geostatistical framework to predict PfPR2-10 in 2000 and 2010 at a 1 × 1 km spatial resolution. Population distribution maps at the same spatial resolution were used to compute populations at risk by endemicity class and estimate population-adjusted PfPR2-10 (PAPfPR2-10) for each of the 44 countries for which predictions were possible for each year.FindingsBetween 2000 and 2010, the population in hyperendemic (>50% to 75% PfPR2-10) or holoendemic (>75% PfPR2-10) areas decreased from 218·6 million (34·4%) of 635·7 million to 183·5 million (22·5%) of 815·7 million across 44 malaria-endemic countries. 280·1 million (34·3%) people lived in areas of mesoendemic transmission (>10% to 50% PfPR2-10) in 2010 compared with 178·6 million (28·1%) in 2000. Population in areas of unstable or very low transmission (<5% PfPR2-10) increased from 131·7 million people (20·7%) in 2000 to 219·0 million (26·8%) in 2010. An estimated 217·6 million people, or 26·7% of the 2010 population, lived in areas where transmission had reduced by at least one PfPR2-10 endemicity class. 40 countries showed a reduction in national mean PAPfPR2-10. Only ten countries contributed 87·1% of the population living in areas of hyperendemic or holoendemic transmission in 2010.InterpretationSubstantial reductions in malaria transmission have been achieved in endemic countries in Africa over the period 2000-10. However, 57% of the population in 2010 continued to live in areas where transmission remains moderate to intense and global support to sustain and accelerate the reduction of transmission must remain a priority.FundingWellcome Trust.

Dataset Information

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Malaria Test Positivity Outcomes and Programme Interventions in Low Transmission Settings in Southern Africa, 2000-2021.

Publications

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Malaria Test Positivity Outcomes and Programme Interventions in Low Transmission Settings in Southern Africa, 2000-2021.

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