Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade.

ABSTRACT: International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios' plausibility

SUBMITTER: Ribeiro J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9180917 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature