Spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19: Comparison of the inhomogeneous SEPIR model and data from South Carolina.

ABSTRACT: During the COVID-19 pandemic authorities have been striving to obtain reliable predictions for the spreading dynamics of the disease. We recently developed a multi-"sub-populations" (multi-compartments: susceptible, exposed, pre-symptomatic, infectious, recovered) model, that accounts for the spatial in-homogeneous spreading of the infection and shown, for a variety of examples, how the epidemic curves are highly sensitive to location of epicenters, non-uniform population density, and local restrictions. In the present work we test our model against real-life data from South Carolina during the period May 22 to July 22 (2020). During this period, minimal restrictions have been employed, which allowed us to assume that the local basic reproduction number is constant in time. We account for

SUBMITTER: Tsori Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9182687 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature