Dataset Information

Scoring model to predict risk of chronic kidney disease in Chinese health screening examinees with type 2 diabetes.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

As health screening continues to increase in China, there is an opportunity to integrate a large number of demographic as well as subjective and objective clinical data into risk prediction modeling. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Chinese health screening examinees with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study consisting of 2051 Chinese T2DM patients between 35 and 78 years old who were enrolled in the XY3CKD Follow-up Program between 2009 and 2010. All participants were randomly assigned into a derivation set or a validation set at a 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression model was selected for the analysis of risk factors for the development of the proposed risk model of CKD. We established a prediction model with a scoring system following the steps proposed by the Framingham Heart Study.

Results

The mean follow-up was 8.52 years, with a total of 315 (23.20%) and 189 (27.27%) incident CKD cases in the derivation set and validation set, respectively. We identified the following risk factors: age, gender, body mass index, duration of type 2 diabetes, variation of fasting blood glucose, stroke, and hypertension. The points were summed to obtain individual scores (from 0 to 15). The areas under the curve of 3-, 5- and 10-year CKD risks were 0.843, 0.799 and 0.780 in the derivation set and 0.871, 0.803 and 0.785 in the validation set, respectively.

Conclusions

The proposed scoring system is a promising tool for further application of assisting Chinese medical staff for early prevention of T2DM complications among health screening examinees.

SUBMITTER: Cao X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9184348 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Scoring model to predict risk of chronic kidney disease in Chinese health screening examinees with type 2 diabetes.

Cao Xia X Yang Binfang B Zhou Jiansong J Zhou Jiansong J

International urology and nephrology 20211101 7

<h4>Purpose</h4>As health screening continues to increase in China, there is an opportunity to integrate a large number of demographic as well as subjective and objective clinical data into risk prediction modeling. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Chinese health screening examinees with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a retrospective cohort study consisting of 2051 Chinese T2DM patients between ...[more]

PMID: 34724145

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Project description:ImportanceChronic kidney disease (CKD) is an often-asymptomatic complication of type 2 diabetes (T2D) that requires annual screening to diagnose. Patient-level factors linked to inadequate screening and treatment can inform implementation strategies to facilitate guideline-recommended CKD care.ObjectiveTo identify risk factors for nonconcordance with guideline-recommended CKD screening and treatment in patients with T2D.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study was performed at 20 health care systems contributing data to the US National Patient-Centered Clinical Research Network. To evaluate concordance with CKD screening guidelines, adults with an outpatient clinician visit linked to T2D diagnosis between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020, and without known CKD were included. A separate analysis reviewed prescription of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors in adults with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] of 30-90 mL/min/1.73 m2 and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio [UACR] of 200-5000 mg/g) and an outpatient clinician visit for T2D between October 1, 2019, and December 31, 2020. Data were analyzed from July 8, 2022, through June 22, 2023.ExposuresDemographics, lifestyle factors, comorbidities, medications, and laboratory results.Main outcomes and measuresScreening required measurement of creatinine levels and UACR within 15 months of the index visit. Treatment reflected prescription of ACEIs or ARBs and SGLT2 inhibitors within 12 months before or 6 months following the index visit.ResultsConcordance with CKD screening guidelines was assessed in 316 234 adults (median age, 59 [IQR, 50-67] years), of whom 51.5% were women; 21.7%, Black; 10.3%, Hispanic; and 67.6%, White. Only 24.9% received creatinine and UACR screening, 56.5% received 1 screening measurement, and 18.6% received neither. Hispanic ethnicity was associated with lack of screening (relative risk [RR], 1.16 [95% CI, 1.14-1.18]). In contrast, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease, and hypertension were associated with a lower risk of nonconcordance. In 4215 patients with CKD and albuminuria, 3288 (78.0%) received an ACEI or ARB; 194 (4.6%), an SGLT2 inhibitor; and 885 (21.0%), neither therapy. Peripheral arterial disease and lower eGFR were associated with lack of CKD treatment, while diuretic or statin prescription and hypertension were associated with treatment.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of patients with T2D, fewer than one-quarter received recommended CKD screening. In patients with CKD and albuminuria, 21.0% did not receive an SGLT2 inhibitor or an ACEI or an ARB, despite compelling indications. Patient-level factors may inform implementation strategies to improve CKD screening and treatment in people with T2D.

Project description:Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients are a significant threat to chronic kidney disease (CKD) development during their life. However, there is always a high chance of delay in CKD detection because CKD can be asymptomatic, and T1DM patients bypass traditional CKD tests during their routine checkups. This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model and nomogram of CKD in T1DM patients using readily available routine checkup data for early CKD detection. This research utilized 1375 T1DM patients' sixteen years of longitudinal data from multi-center Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) clinical trials conducted at 28 sites in the USA and Canada and considered 17 routinely available features. Three feature ranking algorithms, extreme gradient boosting (XGB), random forest (RF), and extremely randomized trees classifier (ERT), were applied to create three feature ranking lists, and logistic regression analyses were performed to develop CKD prediction models using these ranked feature lists to identify the best performing top-ranked features combination. Finally, the most significant features were selected to develop a multivariate logistic regression-based CKD prediction model for T1DM patients. This model was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1 score on train and test data. A nomogram of the final model was further generated for easy application in clinical practices. Hypertension, duration of diabetes, drinking habit, triglycerides, ACE inhibitors, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, age, and smoking habit were the top-8 features ranked by the XGB model and identified as the most important features for predicting CKD in T1DM patients. These eight features were selected to develop the final prediction model using multivariate logistic regression, which showed 90.04% and 88.59% accuracy in internal and test data validation. The proposed model showed excellent performance and can be used for CKD identification in T1DM patients during routine checkups.

Dataset Information

Scoring model to predict risk of chronic kidney disease in Chinese health screening examinees with type 2 diabetes.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Scoring model to predict risk of chronic kidney disease in Chinese health screening examinees with type 2 diabetes.

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