Case-fatality rates and risk of death from COVID-19 and influenza A/H3N2 in Brazil: A nationwide ecological study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Martins-Filho PR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9189140 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Case-fatality rates and risk of death from COVID-19 and influenza A/H3N2 in Brazil: A nationwide ecological study.
Martins-Filho Paulo Ricardo PR Júnior Jerocílio Maciel de Oliveira JMO Santos Cliomar Alves Dos CAD
Enfermedades infecciosas y microbiologia clinica 20220613 3
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| S-EPMC7270730 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Human Development Index measures a region's development and is a step for development debate beyond the traditional, economic perspective. It can also determine the success of a country's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly affecting the case fatality rate among severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aimed to associate the Human Development Index with the case fatality rate due to COVID-19 in each Brazilian state and the Federal District, taking into account comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. We also evaluated the influence of the GINI index, number of intensive care unit beds, and occupied households in subnormal clusters on the case fatality rate. We performed an ecological study including two populations: COVID-19 individuals that did not require the mechanical ventilation protocol; and COVID-19 individuals under invasive mechanical ventilation. We performed a Pearson correlation test and a univariate linear regression analysis on the relationship between Human Development Index, Human Development Index-Education Level, Human Development Index-Life Expectancy, and Human Development Index-Gross National Income per capita and COVID-19 deaths. The same analyses were performed using the other markers. We grouped the patients with COVID-19 according to comorbidities and the need for invasive mechanical ventilation. Alpha = 0.05. We included 848,501 COVID-19 individuals, out of which 153,710 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 314,164 died, and 280,533 COVID-19 individuals without comorbidity, out of which 33,312 needed invasive mechanical ventilation and 73,723 died. We observed a low negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and death and a moderate negative Pearson correlation between the Human Development Index and deaths of individuals on invasive mechanical ventilation, with or without comorbidity. The univariate linear analysis showed the case fatality rate depends on at least 20-40% of the Human Development Index. In Brazil, regions with a low Human Development Index demonstrated a higher case fatality rate due to COVID-19, mainly in individuals who needed invasive mechanical ventilation, than regions with a higher Human Development Index. Although other indexes studied, such as intensive care unit beds and GINI, were also associated with the COVID-19 case fatality rate, they were not as relevant as the Human Development Index. Brazil is a vast territory comprising cultural, social, and economic diversity, which mirrors the diversity of the Human Development Index. Brazil is a model nation for the study of the Human Development Index's influence on aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as its impact on the case fatality rate.
| S-EPMC9102208 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a variable worldwide impact, likely related to country-level characteristics. In this ecological study, we explored the association of COVID-19 case rates (per 100,000 people) and death rates (per 100,000 people) with country-level population health characteristics, economic and human development indicators, and habitat-related variables. To calculate country-level COVID-19 case and death rates, the number of cases and deaths were extracted from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center through September 30, 2021. Country-level population health characteristics, economic, human development, and habitat-related indicators were extracted from several publicly available online sources of international organizations. Results were tabulated according to world zones and country economies. Unadjusted and adjusted multiple imputation linear regression analyses were performed to examine the association between country-level variables (per 1-standard deviation [SD] increase) and COVID-19 case and death rates. To satisfy the linear regression model assumptions of normality of residuals, we used the square root transformation of both outcomes. A total of 187 countries and territories were analyzed, with a median (25th, 75th percentiles) aggregate COVID-19 case rate of 3,605 (463, 8,228) per 100,000, a COVID-19 death rate of 45.9 (8.9, 137.1) per 100,000, and a case-fatality rate of 1.6% (1.2%, 2.6%). On multivariable analyses, each country-level 1-SD higher percentage of adults with obesity (β coefficient 13.7; 95% confidence interval [CI] 13.7; 8.9, 18.4), percentage of smokers (5.8; 95% CI 1.2, 10.5), percentage of adults with high blood pressure (4.9; 95% CI 0.3, 9.6), and gross national income (GNI) per capita (9.5; 95% CI 4.6, 14.5) was independently associated with higher square root of COVID-19 case rate, while average household size (-1.7; 95% CI -12.3, -3.2) was independently associated with lower square root of COVID-19 case rate. Similarly, each 1-SD higher percentage of adults with obesity (1.76; 95% CI 0.99, 2.52), percentage of adults with high blood pressure (1.11; 95% CI 0.48, 1.74), percentage of adults with physical inactivity (1.01; 95% CI 0.10, 1.191), and travel & tourism competitiveness index (1.05; 95% CI 0.06, 2.04) was independently associated with higher square root of COVID-19 death rate, whereas GNI per capita (-0.92; 95% CI -1.81, -0.03), and average household size (-1.07; 95% CI -1.87, -0.27) was independently associated with lower square root of COVID-19 death rate. This ecological study informs the need to develop country-specific public health interventions to better target populations at high risk for COVID-19, and test interventions to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2, taking into consideration cross-country differences in population health characteristics, and economic, human development and habitat-related factors.
| S-EPMC8662119 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 is a global pandemic with uncertain death rates. We examined county-level population morality rates (per 100,000) and case fatality rates by US region and rural-urban classification, while controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and hospital variables. We found that population mortality rates and case fatality rates were significantly different across region, rural-urban classification, and their interaction. All significant comparisons had p < 0.001. Northeast counties had the highest population mortality rates (27.4) but had similar case fatality rates (5.9%) compared to other regions except the Southeast, which had significantly lower rates (4.1%). Population mortality rates were highest in urban counties but conversely, case fatality rates were highest in rural counties. Death rates in the Northeast were driven by urban areas (e.g., small, East Coast states), while case fatality rates tended to be highest in the most rural counties for all regions, especially the Southwest. However, on further inspection, high case fatality rate percentages in the Southwest, as well as in overall US counties, were driven by a low case number. This makes it hard to distinguish genuinely higher mortality or an artifact of a small sample size. In summary, coronavirus deaths are not homogenous across the United States but instead vary by region and population and highlight the importance of fine-scale analysis.
| S-EPMC7551952 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7162747 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe case fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) varies significantly between countries. We aimed to describe the associations between health indicators and the national CFRs of COVID-19.MethodsWe identified for each country health indicators potentially associated with the national CFRs of COVID-19. We extracted data for 18 variables from international administrative data sources for 34 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We excluded the collinear variables and examined the 16 variables in multivariable analysis. A dynamic web-based model was developed to analyse and display the associations for the CFRs of COVID-19. We followed the Guideline for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).ResultsIn multivariable analysis, the variables significantly associated with the increased CFRs were percentage of obesity in ages >18 years (β = 3.26; 95%CI = 1.20, 5.33; p 0.003), tuberculosis incidence (β = 3.15; 95%CI = 1.09, 5.22; p 0.004), duration (days) since first death due to COVID-19 (β = 2.89; 95%CI = 0.83, 4.96; p 0.008), and median age (β = 2.83; 95%CI = 0.76, 4.89; p 0.009). The COVID-19 test rate (β = -3.54; 95%CI = -5.60, -1.47; p 0.002), hospital bed density (β = -2.47; 95%CI = -4.54, -0.41; p 0.021), and rural population ratio (β = -2.19; 95%CI = -4.25, -0.13; p 0.039) decreased the CFR.ConclusionsThe pandemic hits population-dense cities. Available hospital beds should be increased. Test capacity should be increased to enable more effective diagnostic tests. Older patients and patients with obesity and their caregivers should be warned about a potentially increased risk.
| S-EPMC7510430 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe outbreak of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) has a significant burden on global health and could be associated with significant mortality. Limited information exists about determinants of its fatality worldwide. Thus, this ecological study examined the association of various predictors with Covid-19 fatality.MethodsInternational data bases of Covid-19 statistics and health metrics available primarily at WHO were reviewed to collect information for 113 countries. The dependent variable was Covid-19 case fatality rate. Independent variables were demographic, social, clinical, economic, heath care and child health factors.ResultsCase fatality rate of Covid-19 varies across countries with an average of 4.2 ± 3.8%, and about half of countries had fatality rate >3.2% (median). Significant relationships were observed between Covid-19 fatality rate and socio-economic, clinical, and health variables at the unadjusted regression analysis. At the multivariate adjusted model, percentage of population with age>60 years was positively associated with Covid-19 fatality (B = 0.032, p = 0.005), while Polio-3 immunization at 1-year old was inversely related (B = -0.057, p = 0.017).ConclusionsThis ecological investigation highlights the higher risk of death among elderly with Covid-19 pandemic and suggests that Polio-3 immunization coverage among 1-year-olds may be associated with better survival. Future research is warranted to validate these findings.
| S-EPMC8076728 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The crude case fatality rate (CFR), because of the calculation method, is the most accurate when the pandemic is over since there is a possibility of the delay between disease onset and outcomes. Adjusted crude CFR measures can better explain the pandemic situation by improving the CFR estimation. However, no study has thoroughly investigated the COVID-19 adjusted CFR of the South Asian Association For Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. This study estimated both survival interval and underreporting adjusted CFR of COVID-19 for these countries. Moreover, we assessed the crude CFR between genders and across age groups and observed the CFR changes due to the imposition of fees on COVID-19 tests in Bangladesh. Using the daily records up to October 9, we implemented a statistical method to remove the delay between disease onset and outcome bias, and due to asymptomatic or mild symptomatic cases, reporting rates lower than 50% (95% CI: 10%-50%) bias in crude CFR. We found that Afghanistan had the highest CFR, followed by Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Maldives, and Sri Lanka. Our estimated crude CFR varied from 3.708% to 0.290%, survival interval adjusted CFR varied from 3.767% to 0.296% and further underreporting adjusted CFR varied from 1.096% to 0.083%. Furthermore, the crude CFRs for men were significantly higher than that of women in Afghanistan (4.034% vs. 2.992%) and Bangladesh (1.739% vs. 1.337%) whereas the opposite was observed in Maldives (0.284% vs. 0.390%), Nepal (0.006% vs. 0.007%), and Pakistan (2.057% vs. 2.080%). Besides, older age groups had higher risks of death. Moreover, crude CFR increased from 1.261% to 1.572% after imposing the COVID-19 test fees in Bangladesh. Therefore, the authorities of countries with higher CFR should be looking for strategic counsel from the countries with lower CFR to equip themselves with the necessary knowledge to combat the pandemic. Moreover, caution is needed to report the CFR.
| S-EPMC7967300 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSeasonal and regional surges in COVID-19 have imposed substantial strain on healthcare systems. Whereas sharp inclines in hospital volume were accompanied by overt increases in case fatality rates during the very early phases of the pandemic, the relative impact during later phases of the pandemic are less clear. We sought to characterize how the 2020 winter surge in COVID-19 volumes impacted case fatality in an adequately-resourced health system.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of all adult diagnosed with COVID-19 in a large academic healthcare system between August 25, 2020 to May 8, 2021, using multivariable logistic regression to examine case fatality rates across 3 sequential time periods around the 2020 winter surge: pre-surge, surge, and post-surge. Subgroup analyses of patients admitted to the hospital and those receiving ICU-level care were also performed. Additionally, we used multivariable logistic regression to examine risk factors for mortality during the surge period.ResultsWe studied 7388 patients (aged 52.8 ± 19.6 years, 48% male) who received outpatient or inpatient care for COVID-19 during the study period. Patients treated during surge (N = 6372) compared to the pre-surge (N = 536) period had 2.64 greater odds (95% CI 1.46-5.27) of mortality after adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. Adjusted mortality risk returned to pre-surge levels during the post-surge period. Notably, first-encounter patient-level measures of illness severity appeared higher during surge compared to non-surge periods.ConclusionsWe observed excess mortality risk during a recent winter COVID-19 surge that was not explained by conventional risk factors or easily measurable variables, although recovered rapidly in the setting of targeted facility resources. These findings point to how complex interrelations of population- and patient-level pandemic factors can profoundly augment health system strain and drive dynamic, if short-lived, changes in outcomes.
| S-EPMC8864601 | biostudies-literature