Learning from the pandemic: mortality trends and seasonality of deaths in Australia in 2020.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

To assess whether the observed numbers and seasonality of deaths in Australia during 2020 differed from expected trends based on 2015-19 data.

Methods

We used provisional death data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, stratified by state, age, sex and cause of death. We compared 2020 deaths with 2015-19 deaths using interrupted time series adjusted for time trend and seasonality. We measured the following outcomes along with 95% confidence intervals: observed/expected deaths (rate ratio: RR), change in seasonal variation in mortality (amplitude ratio: AR) and change in week of peak seasonal mortality (phase difference: PD).

Results

Overall 4% fewer deaths from all causes were registered in Australia than expected in 2020 [RR 0·96 (0·95-0·98)] with reductions

SUBMITTER: Gregory G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9189967 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature