Modelling the prevalence of hepatitis B towards eliminating it as a major public health threat in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) requires reduction in the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) in children to 0.1% by 2030, a key indicator for eliminating viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. Whether and how China can achieve this target remains unknown, although great achievements have been made. We aimed to predict the decline of HBsAg prevalence in China and identify key developments needed to achieve the target.

Methods

An age- and time-dependent dynamic compartmental model was constructed based on the natural history of HBV infection and the national history and current status of hepatitis B control. The model was run from 2006 to 2040 to predict the decline of HBsAg prevalence under three scenarios including maintain

SUBMITTER: Liu W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9195287 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature