Impacts of ambient temperature on the burden of bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China.

ABSTRACT: Bacillary dysentery continues to be a major health issue in developing countries and ambient temperature is a possible environmental determinant. However, evidence about the risk of bacillary dysentery attributable to ambient temperature under climate change scenarios is scarce. We examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China during 2006-2012 and projected its shifting pattern under climate change scenarios using a distributed lag non-linear model. The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the temperature rise above a threshold (18·4 °C), and the temperature effects appeared to be acute. The proportion of bacillary dysentery attributable to hot temperatures was 18·74% (95 empirical confidence interval (eCI): 8·36-27

SUBMITTER: Cheng J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9203284 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature