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Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic.


ABSTRACT: Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.

SUBMITTER: Berec L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9208712 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic.

Berec Luděk L   Smyčka Jan J   Levínský René R   Hromádková Eva E   Šoltés Michal M   Šlerka Josef J   Tuček Vít V   Trnka Jan J   Šmíd Martin M   Zajíček Milan M   Diviák Tomáš T   Neruda Roman R   Vidnerová Petra P  

Bulletin of mathematical biology 20220620 8


Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2)  ...[more]

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