Projected prevalence and incidence of dementia accounting for secular trends and birth cohort effects: a population-based microsimulation study.

ABSTRACT: There is need for accurate projections of the future dementia burden to prepare healthcare systems and policymakers. Existing projections only account for population ageing, not for observed declines in age-specific dementia incidence of 13% per decade. We developed a dementia microsimulation model that synthesizes population-based data from the Rotterdam Study with changes in demographics between birth cohorts from the early 1900s onwards. We determined dementia prevalence and incidence until 2050 for three different dementia incidence trend scenarios: (1) stable age-specific incidence, (2) linear decline by 13% per decade, (3) nonlinear declines averaging 13% per decade. Assuming a stable age-specific incidence resulted in a 130% increase in incidence and 118% in prevalence between 2020

SUBMITTER: Bruck CC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9215138 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature