Empirical Model of Spring 2020 Decrease in Daily Confirmed COVID-19 Cases in King County, Washington.

ABSTRACT: Projections of the near future of daily case incidence of COVID-19 are valuable for informing public policy. Near-future estimates are also useful for outbreaks of other diseases. Short-term predictions are unlikely to be affected by changes in herd immunity. In the absence of major net changes in factors that affect reproduction number (R), the two-parameter exponential model should be a standard model â€" indeed, it has been standard for epidemiological analysis of pandemics for a century but in recent decades has lost popularity to more complex compartmental models. Exponential models should be routinely included in reports describing epidemiological models as a reference, or null hypothesis. Exponential models should be fitted separately for each epidemiologically distinct jurisdiction

SUBMITTER: Roach JC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9216716 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature