A progressive three-state model to estimate time to cancer: a likelihood-based approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To optimize colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and surveillance, information regarding the time-dependent risk of advanced adenomas (AA) to develop into CRC is crucial. However, since AA are removed after diagnosis, the time from AA to CRC cannot be observed in an ethically acceptable manner. We propose a statistical method to indirectly infer this time in a progressive three-state disease model using surveillance data.

Methods

Sixteen models were specified, with and without covariates. Parameters of the parametric time-to-event distributions from the adenoma-free state (AF) to AA and from AA to CRC were estimated simultaneously, by maximizing the likelihood function. Model performance was assessed via simulation. The methodology was applied to a random sample of 8

SUBMITTER: Akwiwu EU 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9235269 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature