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Analyzing and Modeling the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineages BA.1 and BA.2, France, September 2021-February 2022.

ABSTRACT: We analyzed 324,734 SARS-CoV-2 variant screening tests from France enriched with 16,973 whole-genome sequences sampled during September 1, 2021-February 28, 2022. Results showed the estimated growth advantage of the Omicron variant over the Delta variant to be 105% (95% CI 96%-114%) and that of the BA.2 lineage over the BA.1 lineage to be 49% (95% CI 44%-52%). Quantitative PCR cycle threshold values were consistent with an increased ability of Omicron to generate breakthrough infections. Epidemiologic modeling shows that, in spite of its decreased virulence, the Omicron variant can generate important critical COVID-19 activity in hospitals in France. The magnitude of the BA.2 wave in hospitals depends on the level of relaxing of control measures but remains lower than that of BA.1 in median scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Sofonea MT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9239895 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Analyzing and Modeling the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Lineages BA.1 and BA.2, France, September 2021-February 2022.

Sofonea Mircea T MT   Roquebert Bénédicte B   Foulongne Vincent V   Morquin David D   Verdurme Laura L   Trombert-Paolantoni Sabine S   Roussel Mathilde M   Bonetti Jean-Christophe JC   Zerah Judith J   Haim-Boukobza Stéphanie S   Alizon Samuel S  

Emerging infectious diseases 20220531 7

We analyzed 324,734 SARS-CoV-2 variant screening tests from France enriched with 16,973 whole-genome sequences sampled during September 1, 2021-February 28, 2022. Results showed the estimated growth advantage of the Omicron variant over the Delta variant to be 105% (95% CI 96%-114%) and that of the BA.2 lineage over the BA.1 lineage to be 49% (95% CI 44%-52%). Quantitative PCR cycle threshold values were consistent with an increased ability of Omicron to generate breakthrough infections. Epidemi  ...[more]

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