Modeling the impact of COVID-19 on future tuberculosis burden.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has greatly disrupted our everyday life, forcing the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions in many countries and putting public health services and healthcare systems worldwide under stress. These circumstances are leading to unintended effects such as the increase in the burden of other diseases.

Methods

Here, using a data-driven epidemiological model for tuberculosis (TB) spreading, we describe the expected rise in TB incidence and mortality if COVID-associated changes in TB notification are sustained and attributable entirely to disrupted diagnosis and treatment adherence.

Results

Our calculations show that the reduction in diagnosis of new TB cases due to the COVID-19 pandemic could result in 228k (CI 187-276) excess

SUBMITTER: Tovar M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9243113 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature