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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Delirium in Patients With Elderly Hip Fracture Based on Data Collected on Admission.

ABSTRACT: Delirium is a common postoperative complication in elderly hip fracture patients that seriously affects patients' lives and health, and early delirium risk prediction, and targeted measures can significantly reduce the incidence of delirium. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a nomogram for the prediction of postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly hip fracture patients. A total of 328 elderly patients with hip fractures enrolled retrospectively in department 1 of our hospital were randomly divided into the training set (n = 230) and the internal validation set (n = 98). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was used for feature variable selection, and multivariate logistic regression with a backward stepwise method was used to construct a nomogram in the training set. The discrimination efficacy and calibration efficacy of the nomogram were evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve, respectively. The clinical usefulness was estimated through decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC) analysis. Another validation set from department 2 of our hospital, containing 76 elderly patients with hip fractures, was used for external validation of the nomogram. A total of 43 (13.1%) and 12 (15.8%) patients had POD in department 1 and department 2, respectively. The nomogram was constructed by three predictors, including dementia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and albumin level. The nomogram showed good discrimination efficacy and calibration efficacy, with the AUC of 0.791 (95% CI, 0.708-0.873), 0.820 (95% CI, 0.676-0.964), and 0.841 (95% CI, 0.717-0.966) in the training set, the internal validation set, and the external validation set, respectively. Both DCA and CIC demonstrated that this nomogram has good clinical usefulness. The nomogram constructed by dementia, COPD, and albumin level can be conveniently used to predict POD in patients with elderly hip fractures.

SUBMITTER: Yang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9243358 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate dysregulated molecules in preoperative cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of elderly hip fracture patients with postoperative delirium (POD), in order to identify potential pathological mechanisms and biomarkers for pre-stage POD.Materials and methodsThis nested case control study used untargeted metabolomic and lipidomic analysis to profile the preoperative CSF of patients (n = 40) who developed POD undergone hip fracture surgery (n = 10) and those who did not (n = 30). Thirty Non-POD patients were matched to 10 POD patients by age (± 2 years) and Mini Mental State Examination score (± 2 points). CSF was collected after successful spinal anesthesia and banked for subsequent analysis. On the first two postoperative days, patients were assessed twice daily using the Confusion Assessment Method-Chinese Revision. CSF samples from the two groups were analyzed to investigate possible relevant pathological mechanisms and identify candidate biomarkers.ResultsDemographic characteristics of the groups were matched. Eighteen metabolites and thirty-three lipids were dysregulated in the preoperative CSF of POD patients. Pathway enrichment analysis revealed perturbations in D-glutamine and D-glutamate metabolism; glycerophospholipid metabolism; alanine, aspartate and glutamate metabolism; sphingolipid metabolism; histidine metabolism; and arginine biosynthesis at the pre-delirium stage. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that phosphatidylethanolamine (PE, 40:7e), with an area under the curve value of 0.92, is a potential biomarker for POD.ConclusionMultiple pathological mechanisms in the POD group were involved before surgery, including neuroinflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism disorders induced by hypoxia, as well as neurotransmitter imbalances such as increased dopamine and glutamate, and decreased glutamine. These metabolic abnormalities potentially increase the fragility of the brain, thus contributing to POD. PE (40:7e) might be a potential biomarker for POD. Not only do our results provide potential biomarkers for POD, but also provide information for deep pathological research.Clinical trial registrationwww.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier ChiCTR1900021533.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Older patients with hip fractures who are undergoing surgery are at high risk of significant mortality and morbidity including postoperative delirium. It is unclear whether different types of anaesthesia may reduce the incidence of postoperative delirium. This systematic review will investigate the impact of anaesthetic technique on postoperative delirium. Other outcomes included mortality, length of stay, complications and functional outcomes. DESIGN:Systematic review of randomised controlled trials and non-randomised controlled studies. DATA SOURCES:Bibliographic databases were searched from inception to June 2018. Web of Science and ZETOC databases were searched for conference proceedings. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked, and clinical trial registers were searched to identify ongoing trials. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA:Studies were eligible if general and regional anaesthesia were compared in patients (aged 60 and over) undergoing hip fracture surgery, reporting primary outcome of postoperative delirium and secondary outcomes of mortality, length of hospital stay, adverse events, functional outcomes, discharge location and quality of life. Exclusion criteria were anaesthetic technique or drug not considered current standard practice; patients undergoing hip fracture surgery alongside other surgery and uncontrolled studies. RESULTS:One hundred and four studies were included. There was no evidence to suggest that anaesthesia type influences postoperative delirium or mortality. Some studies suggested a small reduction in length of hospital stay with regional anaesthesia. There was some evidence to suggest that respiratory complications and intraoperative hypotension were more common with general anaesthesia. Heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis. All findings were described narratively and data were presented where possible in forest plots for illustrative purposes. CONCLUSIONS:While there was no evidence to suggest that anaesthesia types influence postoperative delirium, the evidence base is lacking. There is a need to ascertain the impact of type of anaesthesia on outcomes with an adequately powered, methodologically rigorous study. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER:CRD42015020166.

Project description:BackgroundPost-hip fracture surgery delirium (PHFD) is a significant clinical problem in older patients, but an adequate, simple risk prediction model for use in the preoperative period has not been developed.MethodsThe 2016 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Hip Fracture Procedure Targeted Participant Use Data File was used to obtain a cohort of patients ≥60 years of age who underwent hip fracture surgery (n = 8871; randomly assigned to derivation [70%] or validation [30%] cohorts). A parsimonious prediction model for PHFD was developed in the derivation cohort using stepwise multivariable logistic regression with further removal of variables by evaluating changes in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). A risk score was developed from the final multivariable model.ResultsOf 6210 patients in the derivation cohort, PHFD occurred in 1816 (29.2%). Of 32 candidate variables, 9 were included in the final model: (1) preoperative delirium (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.32 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 6.78-10.21], 8 risk score points); (2) preoperative dementia (aOR, 2.38 [95% CI, 2.05-2.76], 3 points); (3) age (reference, 60-69 years of age) (age 70-79: aOR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.20-2.12], 2 points; age 80-89: aOR, 2.09 [95% CI, 1.59-2.74], 2 points; and age ≥90: aOR, 2.43 [95% CI, 1.82-3.23], 3 points); (4) medical comanagement (aOR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.13-1.81], 1 point); (5) American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status III-V (aOR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.14-1.73], 1 point); (6) functional dependence (aOR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.17-1.61], 1 point); (7) smoking (aOR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.07-1.72], 1 point); (8) systemic inflammatory response syndrome/sepsis/septic shock (aOR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.09-1.65], 1 point); and (9) preoperative use of mobility aid (aOR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.14-1.52], 1 point), resulting in a risk score ranging from 0 to 20 points. The AUCs of the logistic regression and risk score models were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.76-0.78) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.76-0.78), respectively, with similar results in the validation cohort.ConclusionsA risk score based on 9 preoperative risk factors can predict PHFD in older adult patients with fairly good accuracy.

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Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Delirium in Patients With Elderly Hip Fracture Based on Data Collected on Admission.

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