Forecast of myocardial infarction incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035 using a microsimulation model with endogenous disease outcomes.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Models that forecast non-communicable disease rates are poorly designed to predict future changes in trend because they are based on exogenous measures of disease rates. We introduce microPRIME, which forecasts myocardial infarction (MI) incidence, events and prevalence in England to 2035. microPRIME can forecast changes in trend as all MI rates emerge from competing trends in risk factors and treatment.

Materials and methods

microPRIME is a microsimulation of MI events within a sample of 114,000 agents representative of England. We simulate 37 annual time points from 1998 to 2035, where agents can have an MI event, die from an MI, or die from an unrelated cause. The probability of each event is a function of age, sex, BMI, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking, di

SUBMITTER: Scarborough P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9246106 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature